Super Typhoon 'Dolphin' Heads North: Will It Finally Bring Relief from the Heat?

Typhoon No. 13 'Dolphin' projected path. Screenshot from the Korea Meteorological Administration website.

Typhoon No. 13 "Dolphin," which formed over waters east of Guam and is moving north, is forecast to intensify into a "super typhoon" with a maximum sustained wind speed of 55 meters per second at its center starting July 31. There is a growing focus among meteorological authorities and both domestic and international numerical forecasting models on whether Dolphin will directly impact Jeju and the Korean Peninsula after next weekend, depending on the pressure pattern formed with the North Pacific High now sitting over the region.

On July 31, maximum sustained winds at the center will reach 55m/s as it develops into a Category 5 super typhoon

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration and weather data analysis as of July 29, Typhoon Dolphin was heading northwest at a speed of 16 kilometers per hour, located about 2,720 kilometers east of Guam as of 3:00 a.m. on that day.

Currently maintaining a central pressure of 950 hPa (hectopascals), with maximum sustained winds at 43 meters per second at its center and a gale radius of 320 kilometers, Dolphin is categorized as a "Category 3" typhoon. However, as it passes through waters of higher sea surface temperatures, it is expected to rapidly intensify and by July 31, reach a central pressure of 915 hPa and a maximum sustained wind speed of 55 meters per second (198 km/h), becoming an ultra-powerful Category 5 typhoon.

Afterward, by the morning of August 3, it is forecast to advance to waters about 1,610 kilometers southeast of Tokyo, Japan.

Weekend: Pressure System Arrangement as a Key Variable

According to a comprehensive analysis of major domestic and international weather prediction models and media reports, the spatial extent of the North Pacific High, which continues to expand its influence, will be the decisive factor determining Dolphin's path.

Overseas numerical prediction models, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) based prediction model "Windy.com," suggest that Dolphin may be blocked by the wall of the North Pacific High firmly established over the Korean Peninsula, making it more likely to travel over waters near Okinawa, Japan, and subsequently make landfall or detour to mainland China around August 7.

The northward movement of Typhoon No. 13 "Dolphin" is the largest potential variable that could disrupt the prolonged intense heat and persistent high pressure currently over Jeju and the Korean Peninsula, creating a significant disaster risk.

Given the typhoon's extreme strength, whether it will stimulate atmospheric pressure over the peninsula and bring much-needed rain to alleviate tropical nights and heat waves, or cause damage from strong winds and high waves, will depend on the contraction and expansion of the North Pacific High—the critical turning point for the Korean Peninsula's weather is expected to be around this weekend.

An official from the Jeju Regional Meteorological Administration said, "At this time, it is difficult to determine whether Typhoon Dolphin will enter the Korean Peninsula or provide relief from the heat wave." The official continued, "Once the interaction between pressure systems around the Korean Peninsula becomes clearer around this weekend, we will be able to make a more precise assessment of the typhoon's impact on Jeju and the rest of the peninsula."

Typhoon "Dolphin" Trajectory Simulation

Projected Path Analysis According to Changes in the North Pacific High

Expected Maximum Strength
Central Pressure 915hPa / Maximum Wind Speed 55m/s

Current Location3:00 a.m., July 29
Waters about 2,720km east of Guam
Heading northwest

July 31Passing through waters with high sea surface temperatures
Forecast to develop into a Category 5 super typhoon

August 3Expected to advance to seas about 1,610km southeast of Tokyo, Japan

First Week of AugustFinal trajectory to be determined by position of the North Pacific High

Scenario 1: Japan Bypass

If the North Pacific High remains strong, the typhoon is likely to travel over the waters near Okinawa, Japan, and move toward China.

Scenario 2: Impact on Jeju

If the high pressure weakens, there is a possibility of strong winds and heavy rain affecting Jeju and southern regions.

Scenario 3: Approach to the Korean Peninsula

If there are significant changes in pressure patterns, the typhoon could move further north toward the Korean Peninsula, acting as a variable in either mitigating the heatwave or causing typhoon-induced damage.