[Polpol News] Conservative Rally Effect?… People Power Party Support Rate Rises for 4 Consecutive Weeks, 40.8%

Support for the People Power Party has risen, narrowing the gap in approval ratings with the Democratic Party of Korea to within the margin of error. This is interpreted as an effect of consolidation among ruling party and conservative supporters amid growing concerns over the ruling party's crisis following the declaration of martial law.

On the 13th, a public opinion poll released by Realmeter (commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper, conducted on December 9-10 with 1,006 nationwide respondents aged 18 and over, using 97% wireless and 3% landline automated response method; margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level; response rate 5.7%) showed that support for the People Power Party rose by 6.4 percentage points to 40.8%. Support for the Democratic Party fell by 3.0 percentage points to 42.3%.

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Following President Yoon Seok-yeol's declaration of martial law, the Democratic Party's approval rating, which was 52.4% in the second week of December, declined for four consecutive weeks, while the People Power Party's support, which was 25.7% in the same period, rose for four consecutive weeks. As a result, the gap between the two parties narrowed to 1.4 percentage points, the closest in the past 16 weeks.

The rise in support for the People Power Party is attributed to consolidation among the elderly and conservative groups. Among those in their 70s, support increased by 23.2 percentage points to 63.2%, and among those in their 60s, it rose by 12.4 percentage points to 49.3%. Support among conservatives also increased by 9.0 percentage points, from 69.2% to 78.2%. Additionally, support rose by 11.4 percentage points in Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong; by 8.5 percentage points in Incheon and Gyeonggi; by 5.7 percentage points in Daegu and Gyeongbuk; and by 4.6 percentage points in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. This pattern is interpreted as a characteristic of automated response telephone (ARS) polls, where the voices of actively responding supporters are strongly reflected.

The People’s Revolutionary Party was surveyed at 4.8%, the Reform New Party at 2.4%, and the Progressive Party at 1.2%.

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Regarding the next presidential election, the theory of regime change by the opposition fell by 5.6 percentage points to 52.9%, while the ruling party’s regime continuation theory rose by 6.4 percentage points to 41.2%. In the fourth week of December, regime change was at 60.4% and regime continuation at 32.3%, showing a significant narrowing of the gap.

Polling on President Yoon’s approval has not been conducted since his suspension on the 14th of last month. Realmeter stated, "Polling will be suspended until the Constitutional Court’s ruling. If the impeachment trial is accepted and the president is removed from office, polling will not resume. If the impeachment trial is dismissed and the president returns to office, polling will resume."

For more details regarding the poll, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

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