'For the First Time Ever' University Enrollment Quotas Not Met... Japan Hit by Population Decline Boomerang

Due to the impact of population decline, it was reported that Japanese universities failed to fill over 10,000 enrollment slots compared to their recruitment quotas last year.

On the 10th, the Yomiuri Shimbun cited a survey by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, reporting that the nationwide university recruitment quota in Japan last year was 625,188, but the actual number of enrollees was only 613,453. This is the first time since records began in 2010 that the number of university enrollees fell short of the quota.

A private university in Japan Getty Images

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Private universities had 16,473 fewer enrollees than their quotas. The number of private universities struggling to secure students is increasing every year. According to a survey by the Japan Private School Promotion Corporation, 60% of all private universities in the 2024 fiscal year failed to meet their recruitment quotas. On the other hand, national and public universities had 4,738 more enrollees than their quotas.

The Yomiuri added that Japanese universities announce slightly more successful applicants than their quotas, considering students who give up enrollment. The newspaper explained that "the cause is the decline in the population of 18-year-olds due to low birth rates," noting that the population of 18-year-olds, who are generally the age group taking university entrance exams, sharply decreased from about 2.05 million in 1992 to 1.09 million in January this year.

Furthermore, it criticized that although the number of university enrollees is predicted to decrease by about 30% to 430,000 by 2050, the quotas are actually increasing due to the conversion of junior colleges to four-year universities and the establishment of new departments. A Japanese education official pointed out, "An era has arrived where everyone who wishes to enter university can do so," adding, "Universities that cannot provide distinctive education will inevitably be eliminated."

There are projections that South Korea may follow a similar path.

Due to the impact of population decline, it is estimated that the school-age population in South Korea will decrease to about 220,000 by 2043. Getty Images

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Due to the impact of population decline, it is estimated that South Korea's school-age population in 2043 will decrease to about 220,000, which is about half of this year's university enrollment quota (approximately 440,000).

In addition, the issue of regional extinction is intertwined, worsening financial difficulties mainly for private universities outside the metropolitan area. Seoul is no exception. Professor Kim Byung-joo of Yeungnam University stated at the National Assembly forum on "Higher Education Financial Support Strategies and Structural Improvement of Private Universities" held on the 3rd, "According to a 2020 research report by the Korea Educational Development Institute, 8 out of 10 major private universities in Seoul are operating at a deficit." The financial crisis faced by private universities is largely due to the decrease in tuition fees, a major source of income, as the school-age population declines.

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