Gaza War, Ramadan Ceasefire Effectively at Risk of Collapse

It appears unlikely that Israel and the Palestinian armed faction Hamas will agree to a ceasefire before the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan.

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According to foreign media including the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 10th (local time), both sides have wasted nearly two weeks maintaining a stance of 'unacceptable' regarding key conditions.

However, mediators such as Qatar and Egypt are reportedly continuing efforts to persuade both sides to establish a ceasefire during Ramadan. The WSJ also reported that they have agreed to try to secure a ceasefire for at least the first two days after Ramadan begins.

During Ramadan, Palestinian residents and Arab Israelis have sometimes locked the doors of mosques citing religious freedom, while Israeli police have restricted such actions by Palestinian residents under the pretext of maintaining order.

These actions have led to violent clashes and escalated into armed confrontations between Israel and Palestinian armed groups including Hamas. Furthermore, provocations at holy sites by far-right Israeli politicians, beginning with the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister in 2022 backed by far-right forces, have angered the entire Arab world.

If similar situations repeat during this Ramadan amid the ongoing war, there are concerns that anti-Israel movements across the Arab world will spread uncontrollably. On the 5th, U.S. President Joe Biden urged Hamas to accept a ceasefire proposal, warning, "If a ceasefire is not agreed upon by Ramadan, a very, very dangerous situation could arise."

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