Cement Demand to Rebound Just 2.4% Next Year... '40 Million Tonnes' Recovery in Three Years

Recovery remains slow after hitting bottom last year
Demand expected to top 40 million tonnes in 2029

Cement demand next year is forecast to edge up 2.4% from this year. With the recovery expected to remain slow, analysts say demand will surpass 40 million tonnes in three years.

A cement plant on the outskirts of Seoul. Photo by Yoon Dongju (doso7@)

According to a short- and medium-term cement demand forecast for 2026–2030 released by the Korea Cement Association on November 15, demand is expected to reach 38.71 million tonnes this year and 39.65 million tonnes in 2027. Demand is projected to rise 1.2% from last year this year and 2.4% from this year next year.

Medium-term cement demand from 2028 to 2030 is estimated at 39.68 million tonnes in 2028, 40.99 million tonnes in 2029 and 41.90 million tonnes in 2030. The forecast indicates that demand will return to the 40-million-tonne level beginning in three years.

Cement shipments peaked at 50.24 million tonnes in 2023, then plunged to 38.25 million tonnes last year, their lowest level in 34 years. Although shipments are expected to recover gradually, the industry says that this will not be enough to resolve its business crisis.

As environmental regulations have tightened and production facilities have aged, cement companies need to secure funding for environmental facilities to achieve carbon neutrality. With the sluggish construction market slowing the recovery in demand, the cement industry is also finding it difficult to secure the capacity to invest. Over the five years starting in 2020, cement companies invested more than KRW 2.5 trillion in facilities, including equipment to reduce nitrogen oxides (NOx) and automation systems.

The association commissioned a joint research project with the Korea Cement and New Materials Research Association and the Construction & Economy Research Institute of Korea, as the need for a statistical forecasting methodology reflecting the characteristics of cement demand has grown. The data was allocated across construction and civil engineering orders (35%); macroeconomic indicators, including GDP and interest rates (25%); population, housing and industry indicators (20%); and other variables, including policy and technology (20%). The analysis tool was developed using verified data from reliable institutions, including Statistics Korea, the Bank of Korea, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and the Construction & Economy Research Institute of Korea.

Kim Eui-cheol, an executive director of the Korea Cement and New Materials Research Association, said, "The next-generation demand forecasting system established this time will be continuously adjusted using quarterly results to reflect changes in the market and policy." He added, "Once we confirm that the demand forecast patterns can reliably predict cement demand going forward, the system will help each member company develop medium- and long-term business strategies and proactively respond to climate change and environmental regulations, which are pressing issues today."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.