"Jensen Huang Has an 86% Chance of Resigning This Month"... Chinese Spy, Affair Fallout Rattles Markets

Kalshi and Polymarket see a surge in betting markets
"91% chance Huang will resign by year's end"
Six potential successors named, including his daughter Madison Huang

As Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, acknowledged having an affair with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy, public opinion and the market have been abuzz over whether he will resign and who might succeed him. Additional allegations have emerged that he also had an extramarital relationship with a female Nvidia executive who reported directly to him. Even the board, which initially expressed confidence in him, appears to have adopted a hard-line stance within days.

According to Chinese IT outlet Kuaikeji on November 12, betting markets on U.S. prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing a surge in wagers on Huang's future at the company and his potential successor.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Reuters-Yonhap.

According to Polymarket, the probability that Huang will resign before the end of November is 86%. The probability that he will resign before December 31 is 91%, and the probability that he will resign before March 31 next year has climbed to 92%. Kalshi put the probability that Huang will resign before July next year at 40%.

The market reaction follows reports that Nvidia's board has shifted toward removing Huang as CEO. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on November 11 local time, citing people familiar with the matter, that Nvidia's board had called an emergency meeting to decide Huang's future.

On November 8, Nvidia's board formed an independent committee and expressed confidence in Huang, saying, "There is no evidence of a national security threat or a leak of confidential information." But three days later, it adopted a hard-line stance after Huang's alleged affair partner, Alice Huang (Chinese name: Huang Le), was identified as a spy for Chinese intelligence and further allegations emerged that he had an extramarital relationship with an executive who reported directly to him. The Information, an IT news outlet, previously reported that Alice Huang had exploited the relationship to smuggle into China Nvidia chips worth $7.5 billion (about 10 trillion won), whose export was prohibited.

As concerns grow over a leadership vacuum, attention is also turning to the choice of a successor. Polymarket identified Jay Puri, a senior adviser at Nvidia, as the leading candidate, assigning him a 21% chance. It also named six other leading candidates, including Huang's daughter Madison Huang, who is a senior director of product marketing at Nvidia; co-founder Chris Malachowsky; and AMD Chair and CEO Lisa Su.

Experts are divided in their assessments. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management, put the odds of Huang remaining in his post at around 50% and said they were declining. Brad Gastwirth, head of research at Circular Technology, offered a contrasting view, saying, "Huang owns a 3.6% stake, so he will wield enormous influence over the succession process unless serious misconduct is proven." He predicted that replacing Huang immediately would not be easy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.