The 'Blue Tsunami' Reshapes the 2028 Race... GOP Succession Battle, Democrats' Crowded Field

Top Republican Donors Float DeSantis as an Alternative to Vance
Rising Democrats Include Ossoff and Talarico

With Democrats reclaiming both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, the landscape of the two parties' emerging presidential contests ahead of the 2028 election is shifting. In the Republican Party, Vice President J.D. Vance, President Donald Trump's leading potential successor, is seeing his political standing weaken, prompting signs that the party is looking for an alternative candidate. Meanwhile, rising Democratic politicians who made inroads even in Republican strongholds in this election have drawn attention as potential presidential contenders, emerging as a new factor in the race.

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. Yonhap News Agency

On November 8 (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that, following the Republicans' crushing defeat in the midterm elections, Vice President Vance and his allies were weighing whether he should run for president in 2028. On Election Day, November 3, the vice president reportedly received a text message from a longtime aide urging him to consider not running in the next presidential election.

Skepticism about Vice President Vance is also growing among major Republican political donors. A New York political fundraiser told the WSJ that, shortly after the election, major donors contacted him to say they would have difficulty supporting Vance as the party's 2028 presidential nominee. They cited Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and others as alternatives.

Vice President Vance has long been seen as the heir to President Trump's political legacy. However, Democrats also won in Ohio, the vice president's political base, in this election, fueling doubts about the Republicans' prospects in the next presidential race, the report said.

Questions over responsibility for the war with Iran are also among the factors unsettling the balance of power within the Republican Party. Vice President Vance is regarded as one of the most prominent senior Trump Administration officials skeptical of the war with Iran. However, observers say that, as the administration's second-highest-ranking official, he cannot escape political responsibility.

Governor DeSantis, by contrast, characterized the midterm results as voters rebuking President Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress. He criticized the war with Iran for driving up gasoline prices and hurting the working class. The WSJ reported that DeSantis appears to be distancing himself from the Trump Administration as he prepares for the next presidential contest. Vice President Vance, however, still leads polls of potential Republican presidential candidates.

Democrats Gain a Deep Bench of Potential Contenders, but Internal Divisions Could Emerge in the Primaries 

James Talarico, U.S. Senator from Texas. James Talarico's website.

Following their sweeping midterm victory, Democrats are moving toward a full-fledged contest to choose the party's next presidential candidate. The WSJ assessed that the election had introduced a new crop of political stars to the party. However, it said divisions between moderates and progressives, as well as between established politicians and rising figures, could come to the fore in the 2028 presidential primaries.

The candidate who drew the most attention as a potential presidential contender was Senator Jon Ossoff, who won reelection in Georgia's U.S. Senate race by an 18-percentage-point margin. Despite saying he was not interested in running for president in 2028, Ossoff has emerged as a leading potential Democratic contender.

In a mock vote for the Democratic presidential nomination held among 990 attendees at Crooked Con, a progressive political event in Washington, D.C., on November 7, Senator Ossoff came in first with 38.4%. He was followed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) with 16.6% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 13.9%. However, because the poll surveyed attendees at a progressive event, it is difficult to view the results as representative of public opinion.

James Talarico, the Democrat elected to the Senate in Texas, a longtime Republican stronghold, and Gina Hinojosa, elected governor of Texas, have also joined the list of potential presidential contenders. Rob Sand, who won the Iowa gubernatorial race, is also drawing attention as someone who could help expand the Democrats' support base in the Midwest.

Established Democratic presidential hopefuls are also working to expand their political influence. Former Vice President Kamala Harris maintained her political profile by supporting Democratic candidates in key battleground states. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker are also expanding their support within the party by taking a hard line against President Trump.

In particular, the next Democratic presidential primary is expected to see fierce competition over whether to focus on appealing to moderate voters or pursue a progressive policy agenda. Candidates who won in Republican-leaning areas attracted moderate and independent voters, demonstrating the importance of broadening the party's appeal toward the center.

Meanwhile, progressives view Abdul El-Sayed's election in Michigan as the first Muslim U.S. senator as proof of the competitiveness of progressive candidates.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.