"Mom, Where Did All My Classmates Go?"... Elementary School Enrollment Set to Fall Below 300,000

Just three years since the number fell below 400,000
Concerns grow over families with school-age children gravitating toward the Seoul metropolitan area

In the wake of the low birth rate, the number of children entering elementary school next year is expected to fall below 300,000 for the first time ever.

Elementary school entrance ceremony. The photo is not directly related to the article. Yonhap News Agency

According to a review of data from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and the Korea Educational Development Institute, among other sources, on Nov. 8, the number of children set to receive elementary school enrollment notices starting next month is expected to remain in the 200,000s. It has been only three years since the number fell below 400,000. Compared with about 60 years ago, it is now just one-quarter of what it was.

According to the Ministry of Data and Statistics, 272,337 children born in 2020—the age group due to start elementary school next year—were born, down 10.0% from 302,676 a year earlier. This year's elementary school enrollment was already the lowest since related statistics were first compiled in 1963. Next year, the number is expected to fall below 300,000, setting a new record low.

The number of children entering elementary school does not exactly match the number of births in the corresponding age group. Factors such as deaths, early enrollment, stays abroad, and foreign nationals residing in Korea also have an effect.

However, the impact of these variables is not significant. Over the past 20 years, the difference between the number of students entering elementary school (2007-2026) and the number of births in the corresponding enrollment age group (2000-2019) averaged 12,438, or 2.6%. The number of students entering school was always lower than the number of births.

The number of children entering elementary school was in the 900,000s in 1964, when related statistics began to be compiled, and rose to an all-time high of 1,055,632 in 1968. In 2008, it fell to the 500,000s for the first time, at 540,799, and then dropped to the 400,000s in 2009, to 469,592, but generally remained in the 400,000s. In 2024, it stood at 353,828, falling to the 300,000s for the first time. The low birth rate, which intensified from the mid-to-late 2010s, has led to a decline in elementary school enrollment.

However, given the rebound in the fertility rate beginning in 2024, the number of children entering elementary school is expected to remain in the 200,000s for the time being. There were 238,317 births in 2024 and 254,341 last year. As of August this year, 193,784 babies had been born.

Another concern is that the decline in the school-age population could rapidly lead to smaller schools outside the Seoul metropolitan area. This could limit opportunities for interaction among peers and make it difficult to offer a variety of educational programs. As a result, concerns have been raised that the concentration of families with school-age children in the Seoul metropolitan area could accelerate.

Education finance reform is also underway in response to the decline in student numbers. The government has submitted a bill to the National Assembly that would eliminate the system of allocating local education grants based on domestic tax revenue and instead take into account economic growth and changes in the school-age population.

In the long term, a declining school-age population caused by the low birth rate could lead to labor shortages and a lower potential growth rate. "We need to invest more in education and training per person to improve the quality of the workforce by nurturing talent across the entire population," said Kim Gwang-seok, head of the Economic Research Department at the Korea Economic and Industrial Research Institute. "We should make the labor market more flexible so that economically inactive women and older adults can join the workforce, and actively introduce artificial intelligence (AI) in jobs that young workers do not want."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.