[Asia Business Daily-RealMeter Poll] President Lee's Approval Rating Falls 1 Percentage Point to 35.9%

People Power Party at 39.7%, Democratic Party at 36.5%, Both See Declines
Push to Pass Special Prosecutor Bill, Sharp Stock Market Drop Weigh on Approval Ratings

President Lee Jaemyung's job approval rating edged down in a week, to 35.9%. The standoff between the ruling and opposition parties over the passage of a special prosecutor bill on fabricated indictments, along with financial market turmoil, including a sharp stock market decline late in the week, were cited as factors behind the drop. The approval rating fell further as the week progressed.

A regular opinion poll conducted by Realmeter at the request of The Asia Business Daily and released on November 9 found that President Lee's job approval rating stood at 35.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from the weekly tally the previous week (the fifth week of October). The survey was conducted via automated responses to randomly generated mobile phone numbers among 2,528 voters aged 18 or older nationwide over five days, from November 2 to 6. The margin of error was ±1.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate was 3.0%. Of respondents, 25.4% said he was doing very well and 10.6% said he was doing fairly well. After rebounding 1.6 percentage points the previous week, the president's positive rating fell by 1.0 percentage point this week.

His negative rating rose 0.5 percentage point from the previous week's poll to 60.6%, with 51.3% saying he was doing very poorly and 9.3% saying he was doing fairly poorly. The negative rating was 24.7 percentage points higher than the positive rating, a gap outside the margin of error. Those who said they did not know accounted for 3.4%.

In the daily tally, based on two-day aggregates, the approval rating closed at 37.1% on October 30, rose to 39.0% on November 3, and then fell successively to 36.9% on November 4, 34.6% on November 5 and 33.8% on November 6. The November 6 rating was 5.2 percentage points lower than on November 3. The negative rating rose from 58.3% on November 3 to 62.5% on November 6. On November 6, the final day of this week's survey, the KOSPI fell below the 5,000 mark during trading, triggering a circuit breaker, and the special prosecutor bill on fabricated indictments passed the National Assembly plenary session under the leadership of the Democratic Party of Korea.

By region, approval fell sharply by 8.4 percentage points in Daegu-North Gyeongsang (31.6% to 23.2%). It also declined by 3.8 percentage points in South Jeolla-Gwangju-North Jeolla (57.6% to 53.8%) and by 3.0 percentage points in Incheon-Gyeonggi (36.8% to 33.8%). In contrast, it rose by 10.0 percentage points in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong (30.6% to 40.6%) and by 3.8 percentage points in Busan-Ulsan-South Gyeongsang (34.7% to 38.5%). By age group, approval fell by 3.0 percentage points among people in their 60s (43.1% to 40.1%), by 2.7 percentage points among those in their 30s (26.1% to 23.4%), and by 2.4 percentage points among those aged 70 or older (38.9% to 36.5%).

By ideological orientation, approval among conservatives fell by 2.4 percentage points (15.9% to 13.5%), while ratings among moderates (40.0% to 40.6%) and progressives (53.8% to 53.5%) were similar to the previous week. By occupation, approval fell by 4.7 percentage points among the unemployed, retirees and others (42.1% to 37.4%), by 3.6 percentage points among office, management and professional workers (37.8% to 34.2%), and by 3.3 percentage points among workers in agriculture, forestry and fisheries (38.2% to 34.9%). Among students, approval rose by 4.1 percentage points (24.3% to 28.4%).

A Realmeter official said, "The president's job approval rating appears to have fallen as the ruling and opposition parties' standoff intensified over the ruling party's push to pass the special prosecutor bill on fabricated indictments, while financial market turmoil late in the week—including a sharp stock market decline after the KOSPI fell below 5,000 and controversy over losses to the National Pension Service—also played a part."

A survey on support for political parties, conducted via automated responses to randomly generated mobile phone numbers among 1,006 voters aged 18 or older nationwide over two days, from November 5 to 6, found that support for the People Power Party stood at 39.7%, down 0.5 percentage point from the previous week's poll. Support for the Democratic Party of Korea stood at 36.5%, down 1.8 percentage points. The margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate was 3.2%.

As a result, the People Power Party led the Democratic Party of Korea by 3.2 percentage points, within the margin of error, slightly widening the gap from 1.9 percentage points the previous week. Support for the Rebuilding Korea Party fell 1.2 percentage points to 6.9%, while support for the New Reform Party rose 0.7 percentage point to 2.7%. The Progressive Party received 1.1%, and other parties received 2.0%. The proportion of undecided voters rose 2.5 percentage points to 11.1%.

By region, support for the People Power Party fell by 12.2 percentage points in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong (48.5% to 36.3%) and by 4.3 percentage points in Busan-Ulsan-South Gyeongsang (47.6% to 43.3%), while rising by 3.5 percentage points in Incheon-Gyeonggi (37.7% to 41.2%). Support for the Democratic Party rose by 7.8 percentage points in Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong (36.8% to 44.6%), but fell by 5.6 percentage points in Incheon-Gyeonggi (39.3% to 33.7%).

By age group, support for the People Power Party fell by 5.2 percentage points among people in their 50s (30.7% to 25.5%), but rose by 3.9 percentage points among those in their 30s (51.2% to 55.1%). Support for the Democratic Party fell by 6.0 percentage points among people in their 40s (47.0% to 41.0%), by 3.9 percentage points among those in their 60s (45.6% to 41.7%), and by 3.7 percentage points among those aged 70 or older (37.3% to 33.6%), but rose by 5.7 percentage points among people in their 50s (40.7% to 46.4%).

By ideological orientation, support for the People Power Party rose by 7.9 percentage points among conservatives (69.9% to 77.8%), but fell by 5.8 percentage points among moderates (42.1% to 36.3%). Support for the Democratic Party fell by 7.5 percentage points among conservatives (19.3% to 11.8%), but rose by 2.9 percentage points among moderates (35.4% to 38.3%). Among moderates, support for the Democratic Party stood at 38.3% and for the People Power Party at 36.3%, putting the two at similar levels. Among progressives, support for both the Democratic Party (62.9% to 61.6%) and the People Power Party (10.8% to 10.0%) edged down.

A Realmeter official said the People Power Party's support had edged down as its hard-line response—including street protests and a filibuster against the special prosecutor bill—and internal party conflicts over Han Donghoon's return to the party and the unification of conservative forces came into focus. Regarding the Democratic Party, the official said its support appeared to have fallen amid controversy over allegations of mass membership enrollment by the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, debate over responsibility involving Kim Minseok and Jeong Cheongrae, internal party conflict over a proposed merger, and controversy over its push to pass the special prosecutor bill on fabricated indictments.

For more details on the opinion polls, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.