Quantum Computing: Must-Have Stocks for 'Seohak Ants'... When Will They Pay Off? [Weekend Money]

From Defense and Cryptography to Pharmaceuticals and Materials
2029 Market Projected to Reach $6.9 Billion
Mirae Asset Securities Names Quantinuum Its Top Pick
IonQ Draws Attention for Its In-House Manufacturing Capabilities

Brokerage analysts forecast that quantum computing companies' revenue will begin growing in earnest in 2028, starting with the defense and cryptography sectors. The following year, demand is expected to rise in pharmaceuticals, materials, and finance, potentially expanding the global quantum computing market to 2.7 times its size the previous year.

Recently, Kim Eunji, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "Revenue at quantum computing companies will start increasing one to two years earlier than the market expects."

Bitcoin signature cryptography faces its first test

The market had expected quantum computing companies' revenue to grow in earnest only in the 2030s, when systems for correcting computational errors become established. During that period, IonQ's share price plunged 48.6% and Rigetti Computing's fell 58.5% between early October 2025 and late October 2026.

Researcher Kim focused on how algorithm improvements have reduced the computing resources needed to solve the same problems. As a result, she estimated that the global quantum computing market will grow from $1.2 billion this year to $2.6 billion in 2028 and $6.9 billion in 2029.

A prime example is the signature cryptography used in Bitcoin transactions. IonQ estimated that 1,457 logical qubits would be needed to break this cryptography. Logical qubits are units of computation formed by grouping multiple physical qubits to correct errors. IonQ's target for 2028 is 1,600, exceeding that figure. To actually break the cryptography, a quantum computer would also need the ability to complete the necessary computations. However, the analysis noted that even the possibility of existing cryptography being broken could give defense and intelligence agencies an incentive to increase their response budgets.

In 2029, Quantinuum's next-generation quantum computer, Apollo, is expected to approach the performance needed to simulate the behavior of small molecules. This could open the way for quantum computers to be used in researching the properties of drug candidates and new materials.

65% of 95 equipment orders and installations were in the public sector

Governments and national laboratories are currently the main purchasers of quantum computers. Of the 95 quantum computer orders and installations from 2021 through September 2026 tallied by Mirae Asset Securities, the public sector accounted for 65%. In South Korea, the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI) also signed a contract to connect an IonQ quantum computer to the national supercomputer.

The cumulative quantum-sector budgets announced by the governments of 14 major countries, excluding China and Russia, total $45.6 billion. Newly announced budgets this year alone amount to $6.4 billion. These funds cover not only equipment purchases but also basic research, workforce development, and quantum communications.

Restrictions on Chinese companies entering Western markets are also making the sector more attractive. Due to U.S. trade restrictions and export controls on key components, none of the 95 cases surveyed involved a Chinese company installing equipment at a Western national laboratory or supercomputing center. Disclosed prices for research systems range from $8.4 million to $25.5 million per unit. Limited competition allows suppliers to retain their pricing power.

Quantinuum kept to its development schedule; IonQ has manufacturing capabilities

Mirae Asset Securities named Quantinuum its top pick in the sector, assigning it a "Buy" rating and a price target of $49.55. After reviewing 51 development targets announced by five major companies, the brokerage found that Quantinuum had adhered to its original schedule more consistently than its peers. Following the launch of its next-generation Sol system next year and Apollo in 2029, Quantinuum's 2029 revenue is projected to reach $624.3 million, up 199% from the previous year.

For its second-favorite pick, IonQ, the brokerage issued a "Buy" rating with a price target of $37.90. It cited IonQ's acquisition of semiconductor foundry SkyWater, which enables the company to manufacture chips in-house. According to IonQ, the acquisition shortened the time required for chip design and validation from nine months to two. Rigetti, by contrast, received a "Sell" rating after meeting only three of its 12 development targets on schedule.

For each company, future results are expected to hinge on whether its new quantum processor achieves its target performance and whether it can deliver ordered equipment on schedule. Researcher Kim identified "the biggest risk as delays in industrial applications." If adoption by industries such as pharmaceuticals and finance is delayed by two years beyond expectations, the market could be 62% to 78% smaller in 2029-2031 than the baseline forecast.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.