"Was Missing Out This Year Actually an Opportunity?"... 'This Commodity' Set to Soar in Value in 2027 [Weekend Money]

With international oil prices, which surged due to geopolitical risks, gradually entering a period of stabilization, analysts say leadership in the commodity market will shift from energy to nonferrous and precious metals in 2027. The expectation is that unless rising oil prices triggered by supply chain shocks lead to an extreme recession, a "selective cyclical rally" will emerge, spreading gains to other commodities.

In a report, Oh Jaeyoung, a researcher at KB Securities, said, "Geopolitical events such as U.S.-Iran clashes have become a constant occurrence every year, but the geopolitical risk premium will gradually ease," adding, "Nonferrous metals and gold are expected to rise as oil prices stabilize."

KB Securities forecast that rising international oil prices would act as an upward cost pressure across the commodity market, pushing up agricultural and nonferrous metal prices, rather than triggering a global recession. Since geopolitical risks and supply factors have driven this commodity rally, the cycle itself is unlikely to be prolonged, but the upward trend is expected to continue into 2027. Researcher Oh explained, "We are not forecasting an end to the commodity rally in 2027 because a prolonged war will keep international oil prices in the $70-$80 range in 2027, demand for stockpiling will increase further as a result of this situation, and the manufacturing sector is also entering an upcycle driven by artificial intelligence (AI)." He added, "As energy prices stabilize, other commodities will gradually attract attention. AI demand is expected to drive up copper and natural gas prices, and gold is also likely to turn upward."

KB Securities presented three scenarios for a U.S.-Iran war and their implications for international oil prices: an early end to the war by year-end through a full-scale military operation after the U.S. midterm elections (optimistic); an end to the war in the first half of 2027 after continued attrition (base case); and a prolonged war lasting into the second half of 2027 or beyond (pessimistic). Researcher Oh forecast, "If the war ends quickly, international oil prices will surge through year-end and then fall and stabilize next year. If the war ends in the first half of 2027 after a prolonged war of attrition, international oil prices will rise gradually before falling to the $70 range by the end of 2027." The longer the war lasts, the more variables will come into play, creating unfavorable conditions for supply and demand in the crude oil market. However, as with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the market is expected to gradually find balance. Researcher Oh said, "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is gradually recovering its production and exports, and various associated costs, including freight charges resulting from current disruptions to shipping and logistics, will also begin to stabilize in the first half of 2027."

Since the start of 2026, gold prices have fallen to the $4,000 level amid concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could tighten policy by raising interest rates, compounded by overbought conditions and rising oil prices. However, KB Securities believes there are still many factors supporting gold's rise. Researcher Oh noted, "In the long term, we believe the rally is still only in its middle phase," adding, "Demand for gold will persist as a hedge against inflation, a safe haven amid geopolitical risks, an asset sought by central banks, and a means of protecting against currency depreciation. In addition, fiscal concerns in developed countries, including the United States and Europe, which have resurfaced since the second half of 2026, as well as political risks in Europe, are also factors that could push up gold prices." Gold prices also rose during the Southern European debt crisis of 2011-2012. KB Securities forecast that gold prices would return to the $5,000 range per ounce in 2027 and continue their gradual rise.

Copper is expected to take a breather in the first half of 2027 before rebounding in the second half. Supply is expected to temporarily increase in the first half as disrupted mine operations are restored and scrap copper recovery rises, keeping prices within a range at elevated levels. However, structural supply shortages are expected to come into focus in the second half, as interest rates are confirmed to have peaked and investment demand for AI data centers and power grid infrastructure continues. KB Securities forecast copper prices of $14,500 per metric ton in the second quarter of 2027 and $15,000 in the fourth quarter.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.