"$500 Billion Current Account Surplus Within Reach"... Average Monthly Surplus of $53.1 Billion Over the Remaining Three Months Is Key (Comprehensive)

September Surplus Hits $61.46 Billion, Nearly Half of Last Year's Annual Record in One Month
Cumulative January-September Surplus Reaches $340.66 Billion... Growing Likelihood of Exceeding $500 Billion This Year
Monthly Surplus of $53.11 Billion Nee

South Korea's current account surplus in September this year exceeded $60 billion for the first time ever. Robust goods exports led by semiconductors, combined with the quarter-end effect, pushed the surplus well above the previous all-time high of $49.73 billion, set in June. The surplus in September alone was nearly half of last year's full-year record of $123.05 billion. As a result, the cumulative current account surplus for January through September reached $340.66 billion.

Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song had already signaled an upward revision to the central bank's current account surplus forecast for this year, which stood at $450 billion, at a press conference following last month's base rate decision. If the country posts an average monthly surplus of at least $53.11 billion over the remaining three months, from October through December, the full-year surplus will exceed even $500 billion. Given October's customs export figures, the current account surplus is expected to be the second-highest on record for October. The year-end effect could also push December's surplus above the previous record set in September, making a full-year surplus of $500 billion a realistic possibility. One factor to watch is an increase in dividend payments stemming from major semiconductor companies' shareholder return policies.

Kim Younghwan, Director General of the Economic Statistics Department 1 at the Bank of Korea, speaks at a briefing on the preliminary September 2026 balance of payments at the Bank of Korea in Jung-gu, Seoul, on the 5th. Bank of Korea

Semiconductors Soar, Driving All-Time Highs in Exports, the Goods Balance and the Current Account

According to the Bank of Korea's preliminary September 2026 balance of payments data, released on the 5th, South Korea posted a current account surplus of $61.46 billion in September. The figure topped $60 billion in a single month, exceeding the previous all-time high of $49.73 billion, set in June, by $11.73 billion. It was up $15.34 billion from the previous month and $47.24 billion from the same month last year.

The record current account surplus was driven by the goods balance, which accounts for the largest share of the current account. The goods surplus surged to $62.75 billion, setting a new all-time high along with the current account surplus.

Goods exports, at $130.72 billion, topped $100 billion for the fourth consecutive month, buoyed by strong semiconductor exports. The quarter-end concentration of deliveries added to the increase, helping exports reach another all-time high. Exports of IT and non-IT goods rose 195.8% and 13.4%, respectively, from a year earlier. In September customs export data, IT exports increased, led by solid-state drives (SSDs), computer peripherals, up 392.3%, and semiconductors, up 260.3%. Wireless communications devices fell 1.5%. Among non-IT goods, petroleum products rose 73.3%, steel products 6.7%, machinery and precision instruments 6.3%, and chemical products 2.5%. Passenger cars, meanwhile, declined 5.6%.

Goods imports, at $67.97 billion, grew at a faster pace as imports of raw materials and capital goods continued to rise, up 21.3% and 42.3%, respectively, while consumer goods imports also continued to increase, rising 2.0%.

Increase in Overseas Investment by Korean Residents Is Second-Largest on Record... Net Investment in Debt Securities Hits Record High

The services balance posted a wider deficit of $3.35 billion. This reflected a narrower surplus in the transport balance, which stood at $130 million, as ship charter payments rose from the previous month. It also reflected a wider deficit in the balance of charges for the use of intellectual property, which came to $770 million, as the seasonal concentration of intellectual property fee income seen in the previous month subsided. The travel balance recorded a deficit of $770 million, similar to the previous month's level, as both inbound and outbound travelers declined following the end of the peak summer travel season.

The primary income balance surplus grew to $2.65 billion, as the surplus in the balance of dividend income widened to $2.24 billion. This was due to the end of the seasonal effect of quarterly dividend payments on portfolio investment in the previous month.

Net assets in the financial account, calculated by subtracting liabilities from assets, increased by $54.34 billion, a larger rise than in the previous month. In direct investment, overseas investment by Korean residents increased by $11.43 billion, while foreign investment in South Korea rose by $6.52 billion, returning to growth. In portfolio investment, overseas investment by Korean residents increased by $16.63 billion, the second-largest increase on record. Although equity investment declined, investment in debt securities increased, keeping total investment at the high level recorded in the previous month. Net investment in debt securities reached a record $6.72 billion, as overseas bonds became more attractive. Foreign investment in South Korea fell by $13.81 billion, mainly in equities.

Financial derivatives declined by $3.15 billion. In other investment, assets increased by $24.75 billion, mainly in cash and deposits, while liabilities rose by $2.34 billion, mainly due to borrowing. Reserve assets decreased by $270 million.

October Surplus Expected to Be Second-Highest on Record; Year-End Effect in November and December Could Put $500 Billion in Reach

With the fourth-quarter figures for this year yet to be released, the cumulative current account surplus for January through September has already reached $340.66 billion. This puts a full-year surplus of more than $500 billion within reach. Driven by the surge in semiconductor exports, the Bank of Korea has sharply raised its current account surplus forecast with each revision, from $130 billion in November last year to $170 billion in February, $250 billion in May and $450 billion in August this year. An upward revision in November has already been signaled.

The Bank of Korea expects the current account surplus in October to be the second-highest on record, taking into account customs export figures and other factors. The current second-highest figure is the $49.73 billion recorded last June, suggesting that the October surplus is likely to exceed $50 billion.

According to export and import trends released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, exports totaled $115.28 billion in October, up 93.7% from the same period last year. That was the second-highest monthly total on record, following the $121.1 billion recorded in September. Semiconductor exports rose 259.4% to $56.44 billion, accounting for 49.0% of total exports. Cumulative exports for January through October reached $930 billion, leaving just $70 billion to reach $1 trillion in annual exports. Kim Younghwan, Director General of the Economic Statistics Department 1 at the Bank of Korea, said, "(Based on data from the Korea Customs Service and other sources,) we believe exports could reach $1 trillion this month."

Exports typically rise toward the end of the year, a trend known as the "year-end effect," and this is expected to continue in November and December. "In December, we can expect the current account surplus to top the record $61.46 billion set in September this year," Director General Kim said. However, he noted, "Dividend payments and other factors related to shareholder return policies at major semiconductor companies are likely to act as downside risks," adding that "we need to monitor how the situation develops."

Asked about concerns that semiconductor investment could weaken after the Democratic Party won control of both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, he said, "A lot of news is coming out, but for now, we need to watch how the situation develops and assess its impact on South Korea's current account."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.