‘Plunge’ 19.6% in Three Days... Global Oil Prices ‘Swing’ as Hopes for End to Iran War Grow After U.S. Democrats’ Landslide Victory (Roundup)

Brent crude falls 19.6% in three sessions
Vance also cites “the war” as a reason for defeat
Oil could rebound if peace talks collapse

International oil prices fell more than 8% after Democrats won a landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections. With the Iran war cited as a key reason for the Republican Party's crushing defeat, the Trump Administration is expected to hasten negotiations to end the war.

A Shell gas station in Beihen, the Netherlands, on April 13, 2026 (local time). Photo by Reuters-Yonhap.

On November 4 (local time), Brent crude futures, the international oil benchmark, settled at $94.60 per barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange, down 8.7% from the previous trading session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also closed at about $88.12 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 8.3%.

According to MarketWatch, Brent crude plunged 19.6% over the past three trading sessions, its steepest three-session decline in more than six years, since April 22, 2020. Compared with its closing price of $118.35 on March 31, the post-outbreak peak of the Iran war, it was down 20.1%.

The Financial Times (FT) said expectations for U.S.-Iran negotiations to end the war were behind the sharp drop in oil prices that day. As Democrats reclaimed control of both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections, expectations grew that the Trump Administration could find it more difficult to continue the war.

Expectations for an end to the war rose further after U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance cited the Iran war as a reason for the Republican Party's crushing election defeat. In a social media post, Vance said, "The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone," and identified calls to end the war as the biggest reason Republican supporters voted for Democratic candidates.

President Donald Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., also voiced support for Vance's remarks. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Democrats, now the majority party, would work with Republicans to end the war.

Markets see Democratic control of Congress as potentially curbing President Trump's conduct of the war. Seb Barker, chief market strategist at hedge fund Marshall Wace, said, "The market is pricing in the possibility that members of Congress and officials within the administration will begin to constrain President Trump's war with Iran."

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at energy market research firm Rystad Energy, said, "The Democrats' landslide victory has changed the political cost of continuing the Iran war."

He explained that the White House still has discretion over airstrikes, blockades and sanctions, but that the political burden of exercising those powers has increased. "With both chambers of Congress able to pass resolutions, withhold funding for the war or delay confirmation proceedings, institutional pressure on the administration to seek a peace deal has grown," he said.

However, the FT noted that oil prices could rebound if negotiations to end the war collapse. Hancock, an analyst, forecast that Brent crude could once again top $100 per barrel if no peace agreement is reached, given that high logistics costs and disruptions to crude shipments in the Gulf region continue.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.