"Samsung Electronics Down 40%, but Is a Rebound Coming?"... Securities Firms' "Bold Forecast"

Securities Firms Set Upper KOSPI Targets of 8,000 to 10,000
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to Lead Index Rebound

The KOSPI and KOSDAQ indexes and the won-dollar exchange rate are displayed on a trading-room monitor at Hana Bank's headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, on Nov. 4, as South Korea's stock market opened higher, buoyed by bargain hunting after a recent plunge and gains in major U.S. AI stocks. The KOSPI opened at 5,786.13, up 137.34 points (2.43%) from the previous trading day, while the KOSDAQ opened at 715.74, up 11.35 points (1.61%). 2026.11.4 Photo by Cho Yongjun

Optimistic forecasts continue to emerge that the KOSPI will rebound next year to at least 8,000 and possibly as high as 10,000. Semiconductors and other stocks tied to the artificial intelligence (AI) industry are seen as the key sectors likely to lead the index's recovery.

Brokerages Set Upper KOSPI Targets of 8,000 to 10,000

According to the investment banking industry on Nov. 4, Yuanta Securities Korea set the highest KOSPI target among brokerages that have published their 2027 market outlook reports, at 10,000. Yuanta Securities Korea expects the KOSPI to follow a pattern of a weak first half and a strong second half next year, and sees it likely to move between 6,000 and 10,000.

The brokerage also expects memory semiconductors to drive the KOSPI's gains next year. "Optimism is losing ground in our stock market, but the mood will turn around starting in the first half of next year, as risks such as high inflation and high interest rates pass their peak," said Kim Yonggu, a researcher at Yuanta Securities Korea. "Easing doubts about the likelihood of the AI supercycle continuing, as market interest rates stabilize at lower levels, along with explosive earnings growth at Korean semiconductor companies backed by long-term supply agreements (LTAs), will drive the KOSPI higher." Kim offered an optimistic outlook, saying, "In the best-case scenario, where memory semiconductor profits exceed previous expectations, the KOSPI could rise as high as 12,000."

Hanwha Investment & Securities set the second-highest upper target for the KOSPI next year, at 9,300, after Yuanta Securities Korea. Taking into account its forecast return on equity (ROE) and price-to-book ratio (PBR), Hanwha Investment & Securities believes the KOSPI could easily top 9,000. The brokerage said the KOSPI's forward 12-month ROE is 25.5%, close to a record high. However, the PBR for the same period stands at just 1.08, indicating severe undervaluation, and the brokerage expects the market to normalize and share prices to rise next year.

"Taiwan and the United States also saw their stock market valuations reassessed after ROE hit new highs, and we believe Korea is approaching a similar turning point," said Ha Jangkwon, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities. "Even if spot prices for memory semiconductors fall next year, LTAs will reduce earnings volatility, allowing semiconductor stocks to drive our market higher again."

KB Securities set the third-highest upper target for the KOSPI next year, at 9,000. According to KB Securities, the KOSPI's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (PER) had fallen to 4.6 as of the end of last month, below its 10-year average of 10.1. "The PER typically reverts halfway toward its average following a change in the previous year," said Kim Mingyu, a researcher at KB Securities. "The PER has fallen 55% this year compared with the end of last year. If it reverts halfway from here, there could be room for a further gain of around 25%."

KB Securities also expects AI-related stocks to lead the index's recovery. "AI is increasing stock market volatility, but with adoption rising sharply, it has already become an irreversible trend," Kim said. "The Korean stock market will rebound as it recognizes that the AI rally still has room to run."

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to Lead Index Rebound

Many brokerages set upper KOSPI targets in the 8,000 range. Hana Securities was among them, setting a target of 8,500. "Samsung Electronics' share price has plunged more than 40% from its peak this year, but after similar declines in the past, it recorded an average cumulative gain of 40% over five months," said Lee Jaeman, a researcher at Hana Securities. He forecast a rebound in the index from the end of this year through early next year, supported by technical rebounds in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. He also expects the secondary battery and IT hardware sectors to lead the market's recovery, with LG Energy Solution, whose earnings are expected to turn around, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics, which is expected to post strong profit growth, competing for the third-largest market capitalization.

Korea Investment & Securities set an upper target of 8,300 for the index. "The KOSPI will gradually recover after passing its low in the fourth quarter of this year," said Kim Daejun, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities. "Given the high ROE and low PER and PBR, the likelihood of the index falling further is small." Daishin Securities set a target of 8,200, while Shinhan Securities set one of 8,000. Both expect the Korean stock market to perform better next year than in the second half of this year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.