[U.S. Midterm Elections, Day of Destiny] Harvard: "Democrats Likely to Retake Majorities in Both Chambers"

Democrats projected to win 242 House seats and 53 Senate seats
Democrats favored in 4 of 7 competitive Senate races
Some predict a "Blue Tsunami," not just a "Blue Wave"

On November 3 (local time), Election Day for the U.S. midterm elections, Harvard University forecast that Democrats are likely to retake majorities in both chambers of Congress, the Senate and the House. By contrast, it put the Republicans’ chances of victory very low.

A voter casts a ballot in Roswell, Georgia, on the 3rd (local time). AP-Yonhap News

According to The Hill, a U.S. political news outlet, Harvard’s recently updated election forecast model put the probability of Democrats winning a majority in the House at 96%. Harvard researchers said the Republicans’ chances of winning the House were “about the same as the odds of rolling a 20 on a 20-sided die.”

The researchers said, “A party with such low odds of victory wins an actual election about once in 26 times,” adding that “the last time an underdog party won with similar odds was in 1952.”

Harvard forecast that Democrats would win 242 of the House’s 435 seats. It classified 186 districts as safe Democratic seats, 36 as likely Democratic seats and nine as leaning Democratic. The remaining 10 were rated as toss-ups. A majority in the House requires 218 seats.

Harvard also put the probability of Democrats retaking the Senate majority at 78%. It forecast that Democrats would win 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats, giving them a majority.

Harvard classified seven of the 35 Senate seats up for election this year as competitive. It forecast that Democrats were favored in four: Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Alaska. Republicans were favored in two: South Carolina and Nebraska. Iowa was rated as a toss-up.

Harvard also accounted for uncertainty due to polling errors. It presented five scenarios: one in which polls were accurate, and others in which typical polling errors or errors at the largest levels seen in the past favored either Democrats or Republicans.

The researchers said, “Since 1950, the median polling error has been 2 percentage points, and only three of the 19 midterm elections had an error of 0.5 percentage points or less.”

Some observers have suggested that Democrats could trigger a “Blue Tsunami,” signaling a landslide victory, going beyond a “Blue Wave,” which denotes a Democratic win.

U.S. election forecaster Nate Silver raised the prospect of a Democratic landslide, citing a New York Times (NYT) poll released on November 1. The poll found Democrats leading Republicans in six of the seven competitive Senate races: Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Michigan. The candidates from the two parties were tied in Iowa.

If these political trends translate into actual election results, Democrats could gain at least four Senate seats and retake the majority. Silver drew attention in the 2008 U.S. presidential election by correctly predicting the winner in 49 of the 50 states.

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