[Click e-Stock] "NC, Hopes Rise for New Horizon IP Game... Target Price Raised"

2027's Main Event: "Horizon"
Casual Revenue Streams Also Expected to Expand

Shinhan Securities raised its target price for NC to KRW 370,000 from KRW 330,000 on Nov. 3, while maintaining its "Buy" rating.

"The successive hits of 'Lineage Classic' and 'Aion 2' have reaffirmed the strength of NC's existing IPs. In 2027, NC plans to combine its strength in MMORPGs with the 'Horizon' IP, which has a strong global fan base," said Ko Junhyeok, an analyst at Shinhan Securities. "Casual games are also expected to drive revenue growth by expanding their revenue sources beyond in-app advertising (IAA) to include in-app purchases (IAP)."

NC's operating revenue this year is projected to rise 91.2% year over year to KRW 2.8818 trillion, while operating profit is expected to surge 3,422.5% to KRW 566.4 billion. In particular, Aion 2 is expected to drive growth, with its combined domestic and global sales in the fourth quarter estimated at KRW 229 billion.

However, Ko added, "Concurrent users on Steam are declining, and spending levels are low, so we need to see the repeat purchase rate after the first month." Since its official global launch on Oct. 5, Aion 2's average weekly daily peak concurrent users have fallen from 378,000 in the first week to 312,000 in the second, 256,000 in the third, and 220,000 in the fourth. "The implications of mixed reviews from global users and the decline in concurrent users are likely to become clearer through fourth-quarter results," Ko added.

"Horizon Steel Frontiers" is expected to be the main event in 2027, but it is also positive that the intervening period will not be dull. The lineup will be bolstered by "Cinder City," developed in-house, and the externally published titles "Astrae" and "Time Takers."

Growing revenue contributions from the casual games segment were also cited as a reason to reassess the company. "In the second half of this year, NC plans to connect games from its internal studios, including Rihuhu and Springcomes, to JustPlay, and to expand the scope to include external developers next year," Ko said. "By using this approach to introduce new puzzle games to a portion of its existing user base first, NC can check whether players return after their rewards run out and whether they purchase growth items or passes, and then expand its marketing."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.