Senate Race Tight to the End... Tariffs and Impeachment Unchanged Even If Democrats Win [U.S. Midterm Election: A Moment of Choice]

Pressure on Appointments and Budgets, Sweeping Investigations if Democrats Take Both Chambers
Trump: "Mr. Veto"... Vows to Block Bill Repealing Tariffs
Uncertainty Over U.S.-Korea Trade Policy Likely to Persist
Trump's Governing Momentum to Hold

The midterm elections, which will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Congress, will be held on November 3 (local time). They are a pivotal election that will determine whether U.S. President Donald Trump can maintain control of the government during the second half of his second term.

After forecasts suggested that Republicans would struggle to retain their majority in the House, analysts are now saying that holding on to the Senate will also be difficult. If Democrats take control of Congress, they are expected to ramp up investigations and hearings targeting the Trump Administration and increase pressure over personnel and the budget, potentially ushering in an early lame-duck period for President Trump.

However, Democrats are expected to have difficulty blocking major policies enacted through presidential executive orders, such as tariff policies that directly affect the South Korean economy.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a U.S. election forecasting organization, projected on the 2nd (local time) that Democrats have a 65% chance of regaining control of the Senate in the midterm elections.

As of the afternoon of November 2 (local time), election forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) projected a 65% chance that Democrats would win a Senate majority and a 35% chance that Republicans would hold on to theirs. It projected that Democrats would win 52 seats and Republicans 48. In the House, it put the odds of a Democratic victory at 84%.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats and their allies hold 47. Democrats can reclaim the majority if they hold on to all their current seats and gain at least four Republican-held seats. In this midterm election, 35 of the Senate's 100 seats and all 435 seats in the House are up for election.

Democrats Lead Even in Republican Strongholds... Seven Senate Races in the Spotlight

The races drawing the most attention are in Texas and Kansas. Both states are Republican strongholds where President Trump won by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election. But as frustration grows over high prices, surging energy costs caused by the war with Iran, and tariff policies, Democratic candidates are challenging Republican incumbents and nominees.

A New York Times/Siena University poll showed James Talarico, the Democratic candidate in Texas, leading Republican candidate Ken Paxton by 7 percentage points, with 50% support to Paxton's 43%. Texas is a major Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988. A Talarico victory is expected to send shock waves through U.S. politics.

In Kansas, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton led Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall by 5 percentage points, with 49% support to Marshall's 44%. Kansas has not elected a Democratic candidate to the U.S. Senate since 1932. Hamilton is courting even Republican voters disappointed with President Trump by emphasizing his moderate stance.

Democrats are also showing a clear lead in other battlegrounds. In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed led Republican candidate Mike Rogers by 11 percentage points, with 53% support to Rogers' 42%. However, divisions within the Democratic Party have emerged late in the campaign, including Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary, publicly endorsing the Republican candidate. This could affect the race.

In Maine, Democratic candidate Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins by 6 percentage points. In Ohio, Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown led Republican Senator Jon Husted by 5 percentage points.

In Alaska, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola narrowly led Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan, 48% to 46%. Iowa was also effectively tied, with Democratic candidate Josh Turek at 48% and Republican candidate Ashley Hinson at 47%.

However, with polling gaps in many states within the margin of error, it is difficult to predict the actual results. In 2020, Collins consistently trailed the Democratic candidate in polls during her reelection campaign. But she won the election with 51.0% of the vote, beating Democratic candidate Sara Gideon, who received 42%, by 8.6 percentage points.

Analysts say that Republican voters whose preferences are not reflected in the polls could also affect this election. The New York Times found that voters who decided whom to support within the past month were 9 percentage points more likely to back Republican candidates than Democratic ones.

Democrats Poised to Retake the House... Fears of an Early Trump Lame-Duck Period

Fourteen of the 18 competitive districts are currently held by Republicans. Analysts say that if Democrats win more seats in these districts, they could widen their lead over Republicans significantly, rather than simply retaking the majority.

Voter backlash over high prices is cited as the main reason Republicans are struggling. The war with Iran and tariff policies have driven up the cost of gasoline and everyday necessities, increasing the cost-of-living burden on voters. President Trump has emphasized U.S. economic growth and a booming stock market, but many say voters are actually feeling worse off.

Turnout among Republican supporters is another factor. Even if conservative voters disappointed with President Trump and the Republican Party do not vote for Democratic candidates, they could hurt Republicans if they stay home altogether.

Reuters-Yonhap News

If Democrats take control of the Senate as well as the House, President Trump is expected to lose significant momentum in governing during the second half of his term. Democrats could step up scrutiny of the Trump Administration by using congressional investigative powers and holding hearings. Clashes between the parties over major budget bills and legislation are also expected.

President Trump appears to be factoring in the possibility that Democrats could take control of Congress. In an interview with the New York Post published on November 2, he said that if Democrats win the midterm elections, "I will probably be 'Mr. Veto.'" He was referring to using his presidential veto to block legislation led by Democrats.

On November 3, he also said he would issue preemptive pardons for aides and associates if Democrats take control of Congress in the midterm elections. Appearing on the New York Post podcast, he said he would do so "if necessary" if Democrats retake the congressional majority and launch investigations targeting administration officials.

The midterm elections will take place across the United States starting on the morning of November 3. Vote counting will begin as polls close in each state. However, with many close races, the picture of which party will control the Senate is not expected to emerge until after November 4.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.