[U.S. Midterm Elections: Day of Reckoning] Democrats Hold Narrow Lead in Battlegrounds... Could the "Heart of Conservatism" Flip?

Republicans Trail Democrats Even in Texas and Kansas
Democratic Division in Michigan Emerges as a Late-Election Wild Card

AP-Yonhap News Agency

With the U.S. midterm elections just one day away, Democratic candidates hold narrow leads in polls of key Senate battlegrounds. Even in Texas and Kansas, known as symbols of American conservatism, Democratic candidates are polling ahead, putting Republicans on high alert as they fight to retain their Senate seats.

Republicans Trail Even in Texas, the “Heart of Conservatism”... on High Alert to Retain Senate

Reuters-Yonhap

According to major U.S. media outlets, including The New York Times (NYT) and CNN, on Nov. 2 (local time), Democratic candidates were leading in the final pre-election polls across all seven states considered the biggest Senate battlegrounds in this midterm election. A poll conducted by the NYT and Siena University from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1 found Democratic candidates ahead of their Republican rivals within the margin of error in key Senate battlegrounds including Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan.

Republicans currently hold six of the seven states considered battlegrounds; Michigan is the only exception. Democrats can regain majority status if they hold on to all the seats they currently have and win at least four seats in the battlegrounds.

Particular attention is focused on Texas, known as the “heart of conservatism,” and Kansas, nicknamed “concrete conservatism.” Texas is a Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Kansas has elected only Republican senators for 94 years, dating back to 1932.

In Texas, however, Democratic candidate James Talarico polled at 50%, ahead of Republican candidate Ken Paxton, who had 43%. In Kansas, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton led Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall by five percentage points, with 49% to Marshall’s 44%, putting Republicans on high alert.

Analysts say Republicans are trailing in polls even in their conservative strongholds, amid soaring inflation since the Iran war and disappointment with President Trump’s economic policies. The NYT noted that “only 38% of voters in the seven key battleground states approve of President Trump’s performance,” adding that “these states were all places where President Trump won by large margins in the last presidential election, but public sentiment has soured.”

Democratic Division in Michigan Emerges as Eleventh-Hour Wild Card

AP Yonhap News

However, signs of division within the Democratic Party, particularly in Michigan, have become more visible and are emerging as a new wild card in the final days before the election.

According to Bloomberg, on Nov. 1, Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens publicly announced that she was endorsing Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers. Stevens had previously lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, the party’s Senate candidate in Michigan. She is reported to have turned against El-Sayed after their disagreements over Israel policy deepened.

There are concerns that shifts in public sentiment following Stevens’ endorsement could become a major last-minute factor, as they were not reflected in the latest polls. CNN noted that “the Democratic divisions in Michigan, emerging less than 48 hours before Election Day, could shift the preferences of Black and Jewish voters,” but added that “it remains unclear how much impact they will have, given that early voting turnout had already exceeded 30% before this incident.”

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