U.S. Experts: "Strained U.S.-South Korea Ties Limit Joint Response to North Korea, Giving Pyongyang More Room to Provoke"

Victor Cha: "Seoul Emphasizes Dialogue... U.S. Focuses on Nuclear and ICBM Tests"
"North Korea Could Exploit Differences in U.S.-South Korea Responses to Widen Alliance Rift"

U.S. experts have warned that strained ties between South Korea and the United States are constraining the two countries’ joint response to North Korea amid continued military provocations by Pyongyang. They said North Korea could exploit a potential rift in the alliance, as the South Korean government prioritizes dialogue with the North while the Trump Administration appears reluctant to respond proactively unless Pyongyang commits a major provocation, such as a nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch.

During an online discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on November 2 (local time), Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Mansfield Foundation, spoke about North Korea’s recent military activities, including laying mines in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). “One thing we would like to see is for the United States and South Korea to work very closely together on this issue,” he said.

“Unfortunately, U.S.-South Korea relations are currently very strained over a number of issues,” he said. “As a result, the two countries’ joint response to North Korea is somewhat constrained.”

Klingner referred to U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel’s description of the bilateral relationship as experiencing a kind of “turbulence.” He also cited reports that senior Trump Administration officials had told South Korean officials that U.S.-South Korea relations were worse than ever.

Assessing the recent mine explosion in the DMZ, he said it was clear that North Korea had deliberately laid the mines, but unclear whether the intent was to harm South Korean troops. He stressed, however, that the incident should be viewed in the context of North Korea defining South Korea as a hostile state and refusing inter-Korean dialogue.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, also agreed that U.S.-South Korea relations were not running smoothly. “It’s an open secret that U.S.-South Korea relations are not very good right now,” he said. “However, relations between the two presidents could be good.”

Cha cited trade issues, agreements related to investment in the United States, the transfer of wartime operational control, and the postponement of the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) as sources of friction between the two countries. He explained that disagreements across a range of economic and security issues had accumulated and were weighing on bilateral ties.

In particular, he identified the different approaches taken by the two countries in responding to North Korea’s military provocations as a problem. “The South Korean government is effectively treating every North Korean provocation as a reason for dialogue, while the Trump Administration’s attitude is: ‘Don’t bother us unless it’s an ICBM test or a nuclear test,’” he said. “That leaves North Korea with considerable room to maneuver,” he added.

Experts offered a cautious outlook on the possibility of resuming U.S.-North Korea dialogue. “The United States has had no contact with North Korea since the working-level U.S.-North Korea talks held in Stockholm, Sweden, in October 2019,” Klingner said. “I recently reconfirmed this with a U.S. official, who told me there had been no contact.”

He also said there were reports that North Korea had rejected letters that President Trump sent to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during Trump’s second term.

Cha, by contrast, said the possibility of a U.S.-North Korea summit being arranged suddenly should not be ruled out. He noted that the 2019 meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong Un at Panmunjom was arranged in about 36 hours, suggesting that another meeting between the U.S. and North Korean leaders could also come together at short notice.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.