"Bitcoin Set for Recovery Next Year, Could Hit $150,000 at Peak"[Crypto Radar]

Bitcoin down more than 10% year to date
Hopes for an October rally in "Uptober" dashed
Halving cycle points to recovery phase next year

After hitting a record high of $126,000 in October last year, Bitcoin plunged to around $58,000 in the middle of this year. It has recently been consolidating around $78,000. With a fierce battle underway over the short term as it approaches a recovery to $80,000, some forecasts say Bitcoin could surpass its previous record high and rise to as much as $155,000 in 2027, when it is expected to enter a recovery phase in the four-year halving cycle.

According to CoinGecko, a virtual asset data provider, Bitcoin has fallen 10.5% so far this year. It started the year at around $87,000 and climbed to around $95,000, but then fell steadily, reaching around $58,000 in early July. It subsequently rebounded and recovered to $80,000, but fell below that level again amid issues including the Binance hack.

October was particularly weak this year, disappointing expectations of an "Uptober" - a combination of "up" and "October" referring to a rise in virtual asset prices. "Bitcoin's average October return from 2010 to 2026 was 24.11%, but this year it came in at -7.32%, below the average, dashing hopes for an Uptober," said Yang Hyunkyung, a researcher at iM Securities. "Downward pressure intensified as concerns over interest rates and artificial intelligence (AI) investment and borrowing weakened appetite for risky assets, while outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) coincided with the Binance hack."

However, forecasts suggest that Bitcoin will recover next year. Shinhan Investment Corp. has set a projected price range of $75,000 to $155,000 for Bitcoin in 2027, with an expected range of $125,000 to $155,000 for its high during the year. Researcher Park Sungje of Shinhan Investment Corp. cited Bitcoin's defining "four-year halving cycle" as the basis for this outlook. "Looking at the three previous cycles, in 2016, 2020 and 2024, Bitcoin reached a peak 17 to 18 months after each halving," he said. "Given that the next halving is scheduled for April 2028, the next cycle's final peak will come in the second half of 2029. In 2027, prices will typically recover as the market prices in the reduction in supply in advance."

Yang also expects a full-fledged recovery in the virtual asset market from late 2026 to the first half of 2027, based on the halving cycle. "Considering the pattern of bear markets and bottom formation after previous halvings, the fourth quarter of 2026 could be a period when a bottom forms. If factors such as the resumption of institutional investment inflows provide support, the market could enter a sustained recovery phase starting in the first half of 2027," Yang said.

However, a sharp surge like those seen in previous cycles is expected to be limited. "As the market has grown and volatility has declined, the increase from the trough has gradually diminished, from 4.0 times in 2019 to 2.9 times in 2023," Park said. "We conservatively calculated the target price using the growth rate of realized capitalization, an on-chain indicator, and an MVRV (market capitalization / realized capitalization) multiple of 2.05 to 2.25."

The first support level is expected to be between $78,000 and $82,000. "As of mid-October this year, the average acquisition cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was $82,000, while the cost basis for active on-chain investors was around $78,000," Park said. "Bitcoin recently rebounded near the ETF acquisition cost, and buying activity was concentrated around $80,000. Taking this into account, $78,000 to $82,000 is likely to serve as the first support level."

Park identified the "$100,000 supply zone" as a short-term turning point. "The first key to reclaiming the previous high is how successfully the market absorbs selling pressure in the $88,000 to $100,000 range, where the acquisition costs of investors who bought in the past one to two years are concentrated," he said. "Greater clarity on U.S. virtual asset regulations, companies' adoption of on-chain operations, and the stabilization of real interest rates will influence institutional flows and ultimately determine the strength of Bitcoin's rise in 2027."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.