Kim's China Visit Draws Attention as Numerous Diplomatic Officials Accompany Him
"North Korea May Have Conveyed Its Thinking on U.S. Dialogue to China"
"Some Intelligence Sharing Restricted... South Korean Assets Can Make Up for It"
"U.S. Visa De

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said that differences between North Korea and the United States over the conditions for dialogue have yet to narrow, but that a shift in the situation remains possible around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.


On October 29, Yoon Gunyoung of the Democratic Party of Korea and Yoo Youngha of the People Power Party, the ruling and opposition parties' respective floor leaders on the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, relayed the NIS's assessment at a briefing after a parliamentary audit. The NIS assessed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's recent day trip to Dandong, China, was intended to convey Pyongyang's thinking on dialogue with the United States to Chinese leaders.


Yoon Gunyoung of the Democratic Party of Korea (right) and Yoo Youngha of the People Power Party, the ruling and opposition parties' respective floor leaders on the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, brief reporters after a full committee meeting last month. Photo by Yoon Dongju

Yoon Gunyoung of the Democratic Party of Korea (right) and Yoo Youngha of the People Power Party, the ruling and opposition parties' respective floor leaders on the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, brief reporters after a full committee meeting last month. Photo by Yoon Dongju

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The NIS noted that the members of the delegation accompanying Kim were somewhat at odds with the official rationale for the visit: attending a ceremony commemorating the “Resist America, Aid Korea” campaign. Given the nature of the event, military officials would normally be expected to take the lead, but diplomatic officials, including Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and Kim Song Nam, director of the Workers' Party of Korea's International Department, made up the core of the delegation. The NIS understood that Chinese officials attending the event were also primarily from the diplomatic corps.


“There are no clear economic issues that would warrant direct discussion between the leaders of the two countries, and almost no officials responsible for economic affairs accompanied Kim,” Yoon said. “The NIS assessed that Kim's visit to China may have had a purpose beyond attending the ceremony commemorating the Resist America, Aid Korea campaign.”


The NIS had initially expected Chinese Premier Li Qiang to greet Kim, but understood that he was abruptly replaced by Wang Huning, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, due to circumstances on the Chinese side. Wang has served as a bridge between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kim since Kim's first visit to China in 2018.


“Given Kim's tendency to personally inspect sites, one purpose may have been to visit locations himself, but it is also possible that he conveyed North Korea's thinking on dialogue with the United States to Chinese leaders,” Yoo said. He added, “The NIS assessed that Kim's frequent accompaniment of Foreign Minister Choe to recent non-diplomatic political events, as well as the prominence given to her during this visit to China, show that he is deliberating over talks with the United States.”


The NIS reported that during the visit, Choe was seen speaking closely with Foreign Minister Wang Yi while separated from the leading group of the North Korean delegation. It also reported that Jo Yong Won, a secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea's Central Committee who outranks Choe, gave up his seat next to Kim in her favor.


However, the NIS sees little chance that China will actively step in as a mediator in dialogue between North Korea and the United States. “China may be able to convey Kim's position to the United States in a way that smooths the message, but we understand that it has no intention of actively mediating,” Yoo said.


Regarding the succession of Kim Ju-ae, the NIS said that Kim Ju-ae is her real name and assessed that efforts are underway to solidify her status as the designated successor. “A chronological analysis of Kim Ju-ae's public appearances led us to conclude that this is a strategy to gradually establish her status as successor and increase public acceptance,” Yoon said. “About 60% of her public appearances have focused on the military, giving the impression that a narrative is being built around her as a military leader.”


Regarding controversy over restrictions on intelligence sharing between South Korea and the United States, the NIS explained that some intelligence sharing was indeed restricted following Unification Minister Chung Dong-young's remarks about North Korean nuclear facilities in Kusong, but that this had not caused broader problems in cooperation.


“The restrictions applied to a limited range of information, such as satellite imagery, an area in which the United States has an advantage,” Yoo said. “We were told that the NIS's own reconnaissance assets could sufficiently make up for it.” Yoon also said, “It is difficult to agree with the premise that intelligence cooperation is not functioning properly. The NIS's response was that intelligence cooperation between South Korea and the United States is proceeding smoothly, apart from specific information.”



The NIS also said that the recent denial of U.S. visas to some ruling-party lawmakers was not an issue limited to South Korea-U.S. relations. “U.S. entry procedures have become more stringent worldwide, so I understand that this is not a problem unique to our country,” Yoo said.


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