"Outperformed the S&P 500"... Asset Rose 54% in Year After U.S. Midterm Elections

Bitcoin Gains an Average of 53.7% After U.S. Midterms
S&P 500 Rises an Average of 15.17% Over the Following Year
Halving May Play a Role... Political Factors Also in Focus

An analysis has found that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have, on average, risen in the year following U.S. midterm elections. Bitcoin in particular gained more than 50% on average in the year after each of the three most recent midterm elections. However, some analysts say the gains may have more to do with Bitcoin's characteristic four-year cycle than with the elections.

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According to cryptocurrency news outlet CoinDesk on Oct. 29, Bitcoin gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 U.S. midterm elections. The figure is based on returns from the closing price on Election Day to the closing price on the same date the following year.

Bitcoin, first issued in 2009, has gone through four U.S. midterm elections to date. It surged 1,579% in the year after the 2010 midterm elections, but that period was excluded from the analysis because the market was small and trading was not active.

CoinDesk said that if past trends repeat, Bitcoin, which has recently been trading around $80,000, could rise further after the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Bitcoin also rebounded by more than 40% after falling below $60,000 in June 2026.

The price of Bitcoin is displayed at the Gangnam branch of Bithumb Lounge in Seocho-gu, Seoul. Yonhap News Agency.

Election Effect or Impact of the Four-Year Halving Cycle?

However, given the limited number of past cases, it is difficult to conclude that there is a direct link between midterm elections and Bitcoin's rise. This is because the price gains after elections may be related to Bitcoin's four-year cycle rather than the U.S. political climate.

Bitcoin undergoes a "halving" roughly every four years, when mining rewards are cut in half. Under rules set in advance on the blockchain, the amount of Bitcoin miners receive for creating a block is reduced by 50%.

After each of the four halvings to date, Bitcoin's price surged, peaked 12 to 18 months later, and then entered a bear market. These downturns coincided with U.S. midterm election years, including 2014, 2018 and 2022, and a similar trend is emerging in 2026. One analysis suggests that the price rebound after midterm elections may reflect the start of a new upward cycle rather than political factors.

The S&P 500 Also Rises After Midterms, Up 15.17% on Average

The S&P 500, a leading U.S. stock index, has also posted strong returns after midterm elections. According to financial services firm Hartford Funds, the index gained an average of 15.17% in the year following U.S. midterm elections held since 1950. That is more than double the average gain of 7.30% in other years.

The stock market's long-term upward trend is seen as a positive signal for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

U.S. President Donald Trump. The White House

Whether Democrats Take Control of Congress a Key Variable... Trump's Crypto Policies Also Matter

The outcome of this midterm election is also expected to affect U.S. President Donald Trump's ability to advance his policies during the remaining two years of his term. CoinDesk noted, "If Democrats secure a majority in either the Senate or the House, or both, conflicts over federal government debt and defense spending could intensify," adding that "negotiations could become even more complicated, particularly while the federal debt ceiling remains unresolved."

Crypto policy could also be affected. If Democratic lawmakers take over as chairs of congressional committees, they could investigate potential conflicts of interest related to President Trump's personal income from crypto businesses.

President Trump reported $636 million in income from memecoins in 2025. Meanwhile, individual investors who bought the memecoin launched by Trump in January 2025 reportedly suffered heavy losses. Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving the crypto businesses of President Trump and his family, and have previously asked the government to submit related documents.

However, CoinDesk reported that it would be difficult for Congress to block the Trump Administration's crypto policies after the U.S. Supreme Court broadly recognized the president's authority to remove commissioners of independent regulatory agencies in the Trump v. Slaughter case in June 2026. The outlet said, "Financial markets have already priced in to a considerable extent the expectation that Democrats will retake at least one chamber of Congress, dividing power between Congress and the administration."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.