U.S. Senate Races Tight in 7 States; Possible Vote-Counting Delays Cloud Majority Outcome

Democrats Lead by 1 to 5 Percentage Points in Seven Battleground States
Ranked-Choice Voting in Alaska and Maine; Recount Possible in Texas

With the U.S. midterm elections set for November 3, seven battleground states that will determine which party controls the Senate are seeing extremely close races. Democratic candidates are narrowly leading even in traditional Republican strongholds, raising hopes that Democrats could retake the Senate. But most races are within the margin of error, making the outcome difficult to predict. In some battleground states, complicated vote-counting procedures and the possibility of recounts have fueled expectations that control of the Senate may not be settled even after Election Day on November 3.

Maine midterm election candidates: incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins (left) and former Democratic Maine Senate President Troy Jackson.

The Washington Post (WP) on October 28 (local time) identified Michigan, Iowa, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Texas as the seven key battlegrounds in the Senate elections. Republicans currently hold the Senate seat in six of the states, with Michigan the exception. To secure a Senate majority, Democrats must hold Michigan and flip at least four Republican-held seats.

According to averages of major polls compiled by WP, Democratic candidates lead their Republican opponents by 1 to 5 percentage points in the seven battleground states. However, the margins are within the margin of error in most races, leaving the election results uncertain.

Democratic gains are also notable in traditional Republican strongholds. In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican candidate Ken Paxton by 3 percentage points. Texas is a key Republican stronghold that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988. U.S. President Donald Trump won the state by 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.

In Kansas, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall by 1 percentage point. Kansas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1932, and Trump won the state by 16 percentage points in the last presidential election.

In Iowa, Democratic candidate Josh Turek leads Republican candidate Ashley Hinson by 2 percentage points. In Ohio, Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted by 4 percentage points.

In Maine, Democratic candidate Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins by 2 percentage points. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican candidate Mike Rogers by 4 percentage points. In Alaska, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has a 5-percentage-point lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Uncertainty Grows Over Republicans’ Prospects for Holding the Senate

DDHQ's Midterm Election Forecast

As Democrats perform well in battleground states, uncertainty is growing over Republicans’ prospects for holding the Senate. However, Republicans are outspending Democrats in most battleground states and retain strong traditional support bases, meaning the actual results could differ from the polls.

The concern is that if the races remain extremely close on Election Day, it could take considerable time to determine the final winners. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting (RCV), under which voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and the next-choice votes of that candidate’s voters are redistributed to other candidates. This process continues until a candidate wins a majority.

Maine also uses ranked-choice voting in its U.S. Senate elections. In both states, if no candidate receives a majority in the first-choice count, additional counting procedures are required, which could delay the announcement of final results.

The possibility of a recount is a factor in Texas. Under Texas election law, a losing candidate may request a recount if the difference in votes between the losing candidate and the winner is less than 10% of the winner’s vote total. Talarico and Paxton are currently in a close race, so a narrow margin on Election Day could lead to a recount request.

In Kansas, the counting of mail-in ballots is a potential factor. Under a court injunction, mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day are considered valid if they arrive within three days after Election Day. If the candidates are separated by a narrow margin, the winner may not be determined until the mail-in ballots have been counted.

With control of the Senate potentially hinging on a small number of seats, delays in certifying the winners in these battleground states could prolong uncertainty over the balance of power in Congress after the election.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, but if Democrats retake the majority, Republicans will lose control of the legislative agenda ahead of the 120th Congress convening in January next year.

The Senate not only handles legislation but also has the power to confirm senior officials nominated by the president. The election results are therefore expected to have a significant impact on the Trump Administration’s ability to govern during the remainder of its term.

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