'Zero Coke' Threatens Coca-Cola... Is the Zero-Sugar Soda Market Already Saturated?

Estimated Spending on Zero-Sugar Carbonated Beverages Stalls at Retail Channels
A Flood of Zero-Sugar Carbonated Drinks Leaves Market "Saturated"

The zero-sugar carbonated beverage market, which grew rapidly in recent years on the back of the "healthy pleasure" trend, has begun to lose momentum. Zero-sugar products flooded the market, extending beyond beverages to food and alcoholic drinks, to the point that the coined term "zero-sumer" emerged. Yet spending on zero-sugar carbonated beverages has effectively remained flat.

According to Embrain Purchase Deep Data, which analyzes receipts detailing purchases by a panel of 20,000 individuals, estimated sales of zero-sugar carbonated beverages through major retail channels, including hypermarkets, convenience stores and online outlets, rose 1.6% from 445.6 billion won in 2023 to 453 billion won in 2024. In 2025, sales grew 0.4% to 455 billion won, while sales through September 2026 totaled 370 billion won.

During the same period, estimated spending on carbonated beverages fell each year from 696.1 billion won, retreating to 633.4 billion won in 2025. By comparison, zero-sugar carbonated beverages performed relatively well. However, their sales value has barely changed despite a sharp increase in the number of new zero-sugar products.

A similar pattern emerged in the "L.Point Trend Report," in which Lotte Members analyzed transaction data from the past three years. Zero-sugar products accounted for 42% of carbonated beverage sales over the past year, the highest share among the product categories analyzed. However, even though the number of zero-sugar products increased 47% from two years earlier, their share of sales volume changed little.

Zero-sugar beverages are made with artificial sweeteners rather than sugar to provide flavor while easing concerns about blood sugar and calories. Their taste is not significantly different from that of the original products, allowing consumers to enjoy the distinctive flavor and aroma. More than 100 varieties of zero-sugar carbonated beverages have been released in the domestic market, including products sold through different retail channels as well as limited-edition and discontinued items. Even among products currently sold on an ongoing basis through major retail channels, there are around 50 or more varieties.

Industry observers say the zero-sugar carbonated beverage market may have effectively reached saturation. As consumer interest in zero-sugar products grew, beverage companies released a slew of zero-sugar carbonated drinks. Brands expanded their flavor ranges with zero-sugar versions, and long-standing bestsellers that had been popular for 20 to 30 years also successively got zero-sugar versions. Companies also launched zero-sugar beverages as short-term promotions or limited editions, only to discontinue them later.

Coca-Cola Korea and Lotte Chilsung Beverage, which together account for the bulk of the domestic carbonated beverage market, sell around 20 to 30 zero-sugar carbonated beverage varieties. Coca-Cola Korea has released zero-sugar versions of existing brands including Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta and Dr Pepper, while Lotte Chilsung Beverage has done so for Pepsi, Chilsung Cider, Milkis and Mountain Dew. Smaller carbonated beverage companies, including Dong-A Otsuka and Nongshim, also sell zero-sugar beverages under their flagship brands.

Some analysts attribute the explosive growth of zero-sugar beverages to a "cannibalization effect," with existing consumers of regular carbonated drinks switching to zero-sugar versions. As zero-sugar beverages already account for around 40% to 50% of carbonated beverage sales at major retail channels, the pool of potential consumers who could switch to zero-sugar drinks has stopped growing. Meanwhile, the consumers who remain are largely loyal customers who prefer regular carbonated beverages.

An industry official said, "The new-product effect has faded now that zero-sugar versions of popular existing products have already been released. Derivative products with various flavors have also saturated the market, which appears to have slowed growth."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.