"China to Lead Global AI Language Models by 2030, Share Tech Leadership with U.S."

China is expected to become a global leader in large language models (LLMs), a core technology behind artificial intelligence (AI), by 2030. It is also expected to narrow the technology gap with competitors such as the United States in key AI hardware fields, including semiconductors and optical communications components.

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According to a report released on Oct. 28 by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), China is expected to lead the world in eight of 17 key industries, including large language models, by 2030. BI said Chinese companies still lag in hardware fields such as semiconductors and optical communications components needed to power AI, but are expected to become competitive by 2030.

The report said, "The United States and China are expected to share leadership in AI technology by 2030, and neither side is likely to gain an overwhelming advantage."

The United States may retain a narrow lead in cutting-edge AI models, while China is expected to gain an edge in delivering low-cost AI through software optimization technologies, the report said. China is also expected to narrow its technology gap with competitors such as the United States in semiconductors, even if it does not achieve full self-sufficiency in the sector.

BI also forecast that China would lead the world by 2030 in all three new energy fields, including electric vehicles and energy storage systems (ESS). It also expects China to lead the world in biopharmaceutical manufacturing. China already has an edge in humanoid robot production and some areas of shipbuilding, and has caught up with the United States in the scale of its research and development (R&D) investment, the report said.

Despite China's stronger technological competitiveness, BI said it would be difficult to reverse the country's slowing economic growth. Bloomberg Economics projects that China's average annual economic growth rate will be just 3.6% over the next 10 years, 1.6 percentage points below the average rate of 5.2% over the past three years. "AI and automation technologies may ease the pressure from a shrinking labor force and a downturn in the property market, but they alone are unlikely to reverse the long-term slowdown in economic growth," BI said.

Like competitors in other countries, Chinese AI companies are struggling to turn technological advances into profits. "Chinese AI companies are still engaged in fierce price competition, and it will be difficult for them to achieve profitability until they adopt rational pricing policies," BI said.

BI said, however, that changes to major stock indexes such as the Hang Seng TECH Index could help reflect the value created by China's high-tech industries in the indexes. The Hang Seng TECH Index has so far been left out of the global rally in AI-related stocks. "Index changes could boost growth potential and expand investment opportunities in advanced hardware, AI and robotics," BI said.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.