Incentives to End the Russia-Ukraine War

The Trump Administration is reportedly discussing a major economic cooperation package with Russian President Vladimir Putin that would include the participation of U.S. companies. The measures are intended to encourage an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, but both Russia and U.S. companies are skeptical.


Reuters-Yonhap News

Reuters-Yonhap News

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On October 27 (local time), the British newspaper Financial Times (FT), citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the United States and Russia were discussing the return of U.S. oil companies to the Russian market as part of negotiations to end the war. Topics under discussion include restarting an oil joint venture off Sakhalin Island in Russia's Far East and involving U.S. companies in supplying Russian crude to Europe through the Druzhba pipeline.


The sources also said the two countries had held broad discussions on resuming U.S. airlines' access to Russian airspace, jointly producing titanium for aircraft, developing an Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) project involving Russian company Novatek, and resuming gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline.


However, the FT noted that many of the projects are unlikely to be realized, saying that Russian President Putin has maintained a hard-line stance in negotiations to end the war and that U.S. companies are wary of returning to Russia. ExxonMobil, the only U.S. company involved in the Sakhalin-1 project, is reportedly not currently planning to resume its Russian operations.


The Trump Administration is also reportedly considering lifting sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). The New York Times (NYT) reported that day that the U.S. Treasury Department was reviewing the RDIF's request to have sanctions lifted. Russia reportedly sought the move to allow the RDIF to participate in supplying diesel fuel to the United States via transit routes. The RDIF was sanctioned by the United States in 2022, when the U.S. Treasury Department described it as "an entity widely considered to be President Putin's slush fund."


The United States also reiterated that it could allow additional exports of Russian diesel fuel. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in an interview that day with U.S. business news channel CNBC that additional exports could be allowed depending on Russia's actions, calling it "an attempt to hold out a carrot." Earlier, President Trump and President Putin agreed to supply 800,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel to global markets in October and November, followed by an additional 1 million tons.



However, the FT noted that European countries oppose the United States easing sanctions on Russia before the war ends. European diplomats have repeatedly emphasized that decisions affecting the European Union's (EU) interests should not be made without Europe's approval. One European diplomat questioned the effectiveness of economic incentives, saying, "This is not about money; it is about humiliation and control."


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