[On the Ground] "The Whole Country Is Watching This Election"... Leaders of Both Parties Descend on New York's 17th District

17th District: Split-Ticket Voting in 2024... A Toss-Up

Democrats Won the Presidential Race, Republicans the House Seat

House Minority Leader Campaigns for Conley on First Day of Early Voting

House Speaker Joins Lawler in Touting Tax-

"The whole country is watching this election. This election in New York's 17th Congressional District is not just for New York; it's for the entire country."

Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the House, made the remarks on the morning of October 27 (local time) in a residential neighborhood in Orangeburg, Rockland County, New York, as he urged voters to support House Rep. Mike Lawler, who is seeking a third term in the New York 17th Congressional District. Johnson and other leading Republicans—including Brett Guthrie, chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee; Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC); and Rep. Jimmy Patronis—turned out in force with less than a week to go before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (left) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries visit New York's 17th Congressional District to support their respective candidates. New York (U.S.) = Correspondent Hwang Yunju.

Three days earlier, on October 24, Democratic politicians including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and New York lieutenant governor candidate Adrienne Adams gathered in Peekskill, across the Hudson River. Democratic leaders had come out to help campaign for Caitlin (Kate) Conley, Lawler's challenger. Jeffries urged voters to support Conley, saying, "Rep. Lawler is a MAGA puppet."

It is unusual for the leadership of both parties to turn out in force in two New York suburbs. With Republicans holding a narrow majority in the House by just a few seats, the outcome in a fiercely contested district like New York's 17th could quickly reshape the balance of power in Congress.

Each party has a different goal: Republicans aim to hold on to their House majority, while Democrats seek to regain it. If Democrats retake the House, they could put the brakes on the Trump Administration's unilateral trade policies, including its push for universal tariffs. As a result, the South Korean government and businesses, which have staked much on expanding investment in the United States and managing tariff risks, are watching the election results closely.

New York's 17th District a Key Battleground; Turnout Could Decide the Race

The current balance of seats in the U.S. House is 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies. Republicans hold a narrow majority.

However, recent election forecasters have increasingly tipped the balance toward Democrats taking control of the House. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) gave Democrats an 80% chance of retaking the House majority on October 27. The Cook Political Report, another election analysis organization, also projected on October 23 that Democrats would gain 12 to 22 seats in the House in this election.

In its analysis of the race, the Cook Political Report classified 17 of the 435 House districts as "Toss-ups." Republicans currently hold 12 of those seats, making them areas where Democrats are mounting a challenge in this election.

DDHQ projected the results in closely contested House districts on the 27th (local time). New York’s 17th Congressional District was classified as a toss-up, with Democrats holding a slight lead as of that day. New York, U.S. - Correspondent Hwang Yoonju

Democrats are seeking to unseat Republican incumbents in battleground districts by emphasizing their ties to President Trump. Republicans, meanwhile, plan to defend as many seats as possible by highlighting their candidates' strengths.

New York's 17th District has drawn particular attention in this context. Democrat Kamala Harris won the district in the 2024 presidential election, but Republican Lawler was reelected to the House on the same day. Analysts say the district's split-ticket voting makes the result of this election an important indicator of shifts in voter sentiment.

Polls also show a very close race. In a poll conducted by Emerson College and PIX11 from September 27 to 29, Conley had 48% support, while Lawler had 46%. Democrats held a lead of just 2 percentage points, within the margin of error.

Republican Lawler: "I'll Be Judged by My Tax-Cut Record"; Democrat Conley: "It's About Patriotism, Not Partisanship"

Both candidates emphasized easing the cost-of-living burden at their campaign events, while attacking each other with different campaign strategies.

Lawler highlighted his legislative record, including tax cuts and expanding energy production. At a news conference on October 27, he emphasized expanding the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. "I made it clear to my party that I would not support a tax bill that did not address SALT," he said. "The SALT Caucus worked together to raise the deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000."

New York is considered a high-tax state, with heavy state income and property tax burdens. SALT allows taxpayers to deduct income, property and other taxes paid to state and local governments from the income subject to federal income tax. The 2017 tax cut law under the first Trump Administration capped the deduction at $10,000 a year, drawing opposition from residents of high-tax states such as New York. Under a tax cut law passed in 2025, the cap was subsequently raised to $40,000 for 2025 and $40,400 for 2026.

When The Asia Business Daily asked Lawler whether the results of his tax-cut policies would help him retain moderate voters who supported him in 2024, he replied, "I've stood up to both Democrats and Republicans on behalf of the people in my district." He added, "The Republican Congress has delivered on the three most important issues: taxes, housing and energy. Those accomplishments will play a decisive role in winning this election."

Campaign signs for incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democratic candidate Cait Conley stand side by side along a road in Orangeburg, in New York’s 17th Congressional District. New York, U.S. = Correspondent Hwang Yoonju.

Conley said she would seek to eliminate the cap on the SALT deduction so taxpayers could deduct the full amount, easing the cost-of-living burden. She also argued that Lawler should share responsibility for President Trump's failures in governing. At a campaign rally in Peekskill on October 24, she said, "This election is about patriotism, not partisanship. It's not a contest between Democrats and Republicans, or the left and the right; it's about deciding what's right and what's wrong."

Voters' preferences also appeared difficult to gauge. Robert Zuckerberg, whom we met near the Republican news conference venue on October 27, said, "I support Lawler independently of President Trump. He devotes time and effort to the community, and he's a candidate who pays income tax here."

A woman poses for a photo with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (left), while another woman encourages early voting at a Democratic campaign rally. New York, U.S. = Hwang Yoonju, correspondent.

Zuckerberg identified the central issue in the election as "a contest between socialism and liberalism." He considered Lawler's work in the community and conservative principles more important than the Democrats' effort to hold Trump accountable.

By contrast, Tom Sullivan, whom we met in Orangeburg the same day, named the economy as the most important issue in the election. "I'm not satisfied with either Mike Lawler or President Trump," he said. "I think Conley will bring positive change to our area."

Liz Wellinger, whom we met in Peekskill on October 24, also said, "I've never donated to a political campaign in my life, but this time I made my first campaign contribution. I feel that the United States is at a critical moment." Wellinger stressed that in this election, voters' views of President Trump matter as much as the cost of living.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.