Oil Prices Retreat After First Meeting Between Iran and Three Mecca Pact Countries... "Whether Trump Launches Airstrikes" Is the Key Variable (Comprehensive)

Hopes for easing tensions... oil prices fall
U.S. ready to resume military operations against Iran
Concerns over oil price volatility hinge on Trump's decision

A scene from the first high-level meeting between Iran and signatories to the Mecca Defense Agreement, including Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye, held in Tehran, Iran, on the 26th (local time). AP-Yonhap News

International oil prices, which had been surging, eased after Iran held its first high-level meeting with the three signatory countries to the Mecca Defense Agreement, led by Saudi Arabia. However, the decline has been limited amid reports that preparations for a U.S. military operation against Iran are complete and that only President Donald Trump’s decision remains. As soaring gasoline and diesel prices in the United States have soured public sentiment, concerns are growing that the Trump Administration will resume airstrikes against Iran after the midterm elections.

According to Iran’s IRNA news agency on the 26th (local time), Iran held its first high-level meeting that day in Tehran with the three signatory countries to the Mecca Defense Agreement: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye. After the meeting, representatives of the four countries said in a joint statement, “Participants agreed to continue dialogue to strengthen cooperation among the four countries in the region, including on regional peace and security.”

The meeting was attended by Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan Army Chief and Chief of Defence Forces Asim Munir, and Turkish National Intelligence Organization chief Ibrahim Kalin. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, chaired the meeting. It was the first high-level contact between Saudi Arabia and Iran since July, when military clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen intensified.

International oil prices, which had continued to surge, eased on hopes that military clashes between Iran and Middle Eastern countries would subside. On the day, Brent crude futures for December fell 0.78% from the previous session to $115.81 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1.46% to $101.76 per barrel. However, the decline was limited amid concerns that the United States could resume attacks on Iran.

Earlier that day, CNN cited U.S. officials as saying, “The U.S. military is ready to resume a new large-scale military operation against Iran within 96 hours of receiving an order from President Donald Trump,” and that “there are currently enough forces stationed around Iran to carry out a potential attack.”

With public sentiment deteriorating over high oil prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, concerns are growing that the Trump Administration could resume a large-scale military operation against Iran before or after the elections. The strategy would be to carry out intense airstrikes on Iran and force it to the negotiating table.

According to figures compiled that day by the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average price of regular gasoline since Trump took office on January 20, 2025, was $3.472 per gallon (about 3.78 liters), slightly above the average of $3.471 during the Biden Administration. The average gasoline price during Trump’s first term was $2.47 per gallon. Diesel prices also averaged $4.343 during Trump’s second term, exceeding the $4.078 average during the Biden Administration.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.