U.S.-Iran Fears of All-Out War Rise... Trump and Netanyahu's Election Calculations a Key Factor

As military tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, concerns are growing that the two countries could again enter an all-out war. Analysts say the risk of an armed clash could rise further as the political calculations of the two countries' leaders converge, with elections approaching in both the United States and Israel.

AP-Yonhap News

On October 25 (local time), The New York Times (NYT) reported that the United States and Iran had entered a new phase in which each was wary of a possible attack by the other and considering military responses.

Recently, concerns have emerged within The Trump Administration that Iran has substantially developed plans to target U.S. officials. Iran, meanwhile, believes that the United States and Israel will launch further military attacks to force it into submission.

The U.S. midterm elections and Israel's general election are seen as key factors. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could push through military operations during his term that a successor government might hesitate to undertake if he loses the election. Analysts say U.S. President Donald Trump could also take military action to demonstrate strong leadership as commander in chief.

The United States is reportedly preparing further attacks on Iran. Citing senior U.S. officials, the NYT reported that Trump appeared to be leaning toward additional airstrikes targeting Iran in private discussions. U.S. Central Command has expanded its list of potential targets to include key economic facilities, such as Iran's energy infrastructure.

Iran has also vowed a tough response. It recently said it would not limit its response if the United States resumed attacks. It specifically warned that undersea communications cables in the Gulf could also become targets.

The way The Trump Administration has disclosed intelligence has also sparked controversy. On October 23, U.S. media outlets reported that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) had conveyed information to senior administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, indicating a significant increase in Iranian efforts to target Americans. The information had reportedly initially been shared only with a very small group of senior officials.

The NYT questioned why The Trump Administration had suddenly disclosed sensitive classified information after withholding it for months. Critics say that, with no evidence made public to substantiate specific attack plans, disclosing such information could instead heighten tensions.

Iranian threats to assassinate U.S. officials have been raised in the past as well. In July 2024, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested a Pakistani national on suspicion of plotting an assassination at the behest of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Analysts say these threats are linked to Iran's desire to retaliate for the U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC's Quds Force, in 2020.

The NYT warned that if either side misjudges the other's intentions or makes military decisions based on incomplete information, the situation could escalate into an all-out war that would be difficult to control.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.