[Interview] Shin Beomcheol: "The Military Must Not Appear to Back Down. It Must Respond in Principle" [Current Affairs Show]

Interview with Shin Beom-cheol, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute
"North Korea Aims to Neutralize Our Response to Its Landmine Provocation"
"Threat to Resume Loudspeaker Broadcasts to South Korea Likely a Bluff for Now"

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily's "So Jong-seop's Current Affairs Show" (Monday-Friday, 4 p.m.)

■ Host: So Jongseop, Political Specialist ■ Producer: Lee Miri, PD

■ Guest: Shin Beom-cheol, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute (October 22)

※ When quoting this article, please be sure to cite "So Jong-seop's Current Affairs Show."

So Jongseop: North Korea's recent moves are unusual. Kim Yo Jong, a department director in North Korea's Workers' Party, has issued a strongly worded message and said the country would resume broadcasts toward South Korea. There have been various analyses and proposed responses regarding North Korea's intentions and how we should respond. We are joined by phone by Shin Beom-cheol, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute and a former vice minister of national defense. Dr. Shin, what do you think North Korea's intentions are?

Shin Beom-cheol: I think they have a strong desire to take control of the situation and avoid being put on the defensive because of the landmine provocation. That's why they keep hinting at further measures and taking a hard line. I believe their ultimate goal is to undermine our response.

Kim Yo Jong, director of a department of North Korea's Workers' Party, inspected key points at a southern border fortification construction site alongside senior commanders of the Korean People's Army General Staff, the Korean Central News Agency reported on the 21st. Yonhap News Agency

So Jongseop: Kim Jong Un has not stepped forward, while Kim Yo Jong is at the forefront, making harsh statements. Should we see this as a division of roles based on strategic calculations?

Shin Beom-cheol: There are aspects that have remained consistent, as well as some changes.What has remained consistent is that Kim Yo Jong delivers messages to South Korea, and she is also solely responsible for the harsh rhetoric. That hasn't changed. But this time, there's also something somewhat unusual: Kim Yo Jong personally visited the area they call the border, which is the Military Demarcation Line. That's highly unusual.

That's because in North Korea's system, power comes from the barrel of a gun, and only the supreme leader has conducted inspections of the military on his own. Even if Kim Jong Un delegated authority to her, the fact that she is doing something like this can only be seen as evidence that Kim Yo Jong's standing has risen. In any case, Kim Jong Un likely delegated this authority to her, but we can also see that the scope of Kim Yo Jong's role within the North Korean regime has widened.

So Jongseop: Is this the first time Kim Yo Jong has come down to the border line claimed by North Korea and inspected it?

Shin Beom-cheol: Yes, it is. That's why I said it was unusual. It's clear that Kim Ju-ae is the heir apparent, but she's still young, so I think it would have been difficult for North Korea to put her at the forefront. That's why Kim Yo Jong, who is currently by Kim Jong Un's side, is taking the lead in these activities. That's how I would assess it.

The Korean Central News Agency reported on the 21st that Department Director Kim Yo Jong inspected a fortification construction site along the southern border on the 20th, accompanied by senior commanders of the Korean People's Army General Staff. Yonhap News Agency

So Jongseop: I see. Kim Yo Jong went so far as to mention Assemblyman Kim Byung-joo and the name of the presidential special adviser on defense policy, saying, "You should shut your mouth right now. You little minnow," and harshly criticizing them. What do you think prompted that?

Shin Beom-cheol: From Kim Yo Jong's perspective, Assemblyman Kim Byung-joo mentioned her by name on social media. She probably first wanted to express her displeasure about that. But she singled him out in particular because he is not only a member of the National Assembly but also the president's special adviser on defense policy. In that respect, she may also have intended to send a tough message to our government. She probably wouldn't have gone this far if he were an ordinary lawmaker, but since he is the president's special adviser on defense policy, I think she responded directly to Assemblyman Kim Byung-joo.

So Jongseop: I see. North Korea said it would operate loudspeakers sometime in October. Do you think it will actually do so?

Shin Beom-cheol: For now, I think it's a threat. Operating the loudspeakers would do North Korea more harm than good. If we take countermeasures, the truth about what they consider their supreme leader's dignity could be broadcast to North Korean soldiers stationed near the Military Demarcation Line. From North Korea's perspective, that would cause greater damage than simply harassing our soldiers or residents in nearby areas. So I think the main purpose of its initial message is to tell the South Korean government not to operate its loudspeakers.

That said, there does seem to be some tension on the ground. When North Korean troops cross the Military Demarcation Line, we issue warning shots in response. If tensions escalate in the course of such incidents, North Korea could operate the loudspeakers it said it would. However, I don't think the impact would be that great. South Korea is an open society, so we can filter out any message from North Korea. In fact, North Korea would suffer more if we broadcast the truth. So I think the main point of the loudspeaker issue is that North Korea is making threats first to prevent the South Korean government from responding.

Director Kim Yo Jong said on the 22nd that the loudspeakers aimed at South Korea would be placed on standby within days. The loudspeakers installed in a border area of North Korea, seen from Songhae-myeon, Ganghwa-gun, Incheon, on the same day. Yonhap News Agency

So Jongseop: The Ministry of National Defense has said it will respond proportionately. Do you think that's an appropriate message?

Shin Beom-cheol: Yes. The Ministry of National Defense's position seems consistent: it will take corresponding measures in response to provocations. However, the Ministry of Unification seems to have a somewhat different position, so the government needs to coordinate its response. In any case, I don't think the military should appear to back down at a time like this. And at a higher level, the National Security Office should try to ease tensions, perhaps by seeking behind-the-scenes contact with North Korea. The North also feels uncomfortable when tensions rise. So I think the Ministry of National Defense should respond in principle, and when North Korea realizes that it cannot get what it wants, dialogue can begin. That was the practice in inter-Korean relations in the past. So I think the Ministry of National Defense should continue to talk about a proportionate response and resolute measures.

It's important to make North Korea feel the need for dialogue. If we respond to its actions in good faith and let ourselves be led along, North Korea could actually see that as more effective. That's why I think we should respond in principle and take corresponding measures in areas other than military conflict.

So Jongseop: What do you think about the possibility that an accidental incident or something similar could lead to a military conflict?

Shin Beom-cheol:  The possibility of a military clash in the border area remains open. That's why our military continues to maintain its readiness. Kim Yo Jong said she had ordered a new response measure to be kept on standby, and we need to determine what that actually is. They may have deployed additional long-range artillery nearby, so our intelligence authorities need to make an accurate assessment. We also need to strengthen our readiness to ensure we are not outmatched in terms of concentrated firepower in any area, including in a possible localized clash. If we are prepared for such a situation, North Korea will not dare to provoke us recklessly. A provocation is carried out when the other side believes it will succeed; if it believes it will fail, it won't provoke. I think that is the key to preventing North Korean provocations this time.

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So Jongseop: How do you think the government should respond to this situation? And what is your outlook for inter-Korean relations?

Shin Beom-cheol: I actually thought that we needed to take a tough stance at the outset of the incident (the landmine explosion). The incident happened on September 21, didn't it? I think it would have been better if we had stated our position more firmly from late September through early October. In any case, our government responded cautiously, in part to pursue dialogue with North Korea, especially because there was a possibility of a North Korea-U.S. summit on the sidelines of APEC on November 18.

We can't change the past, so under the current circumstances, we should take the necessary measures while avoiding an accidental clash with the North. For example, we can carry out mine-removal operations. And if North Korea operates its loudspeakers, even though I don't think that's very likely, we will have to respond in kind. While taking these measures, we should work with the United States to create an opportunity for inter-Korean dialogue, since the possibility of a North Korea-U.S. summit on the sidelines of APEC remains open. Although it may not be visible publicly, I think we should consistently convey the messages the North needs to hear through behind-the-scenes channels.

We need to exchange messages more actively through back channels not only about the landmine issue, but also about inter-Korean relations as a whole: what kind of relationship North Korea wants, where we can cooperate, and what we need to insist on. That is how we can better understand each other. Things are unlikely to go our way easily, given the current international situation. Even so, I think the top priority is to build a consensus that can prevent provocations and maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.