"A Real Estate Market Unlike Any We've Seen Is Coming"; Non-Homeowners Could Be Blindsided

Jeonse prices have risen more than during the previous record-long rally

Redevelopment and reconstruction relocations set to converge next year

"Shortage of jeonse and rental listings is forcing people to buy"

Experts have warned that as the supply of homes for monthly and jeonse rentals dwindles, even people who cannot afford to buy a home may be forced to purchase one.

Over the past 85 weeks, the rate of increase in Seoul apartment jeonse prices has exceeded the rise recorded during the longest period of increases on record under the Moon Jae-in administration. As of September 21, there were 35,483 jeonse listings in the Seoul metropolitan area, down 27.5% from a year earlier. In addition, by the first half of 2027, about 30,000 households will relocate due to redevelopment projects in Seoul, including 4,424 households at Eunma Apartment in Gangnam-gu and 1,960 households in Gaepo Jugong Complexes 6 and 7. If relocation demand surges all at once and further reduces the number of jeonse listings, jeonse prices could rise more sharply.

Real estate investor Jeong Eunsuk (Meditera) made the remarks on October 16 when she appeared on the YouTube channel "Budongsan Ilgeo-juneun Namja." The channel has 1.84 million subscribers.

An apartment complex in Songpa-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jinhyeong.

Jeong said of the recent real estate market, "A real estate market unlike anything we have experienced in 20 to 30 years is coming." She added, "If people had a choice, they would say, 'I can just rent a place, monthly or on a jeonse basis,' but now 'just renting' is not an option. Those who cannot even find a listing will have no choice but to make a forced purchase." Jeong is the author of the real estate book "Meditera's Self Location Power."

She argued, "Even setting aside the fact that monthly and jeonse rental prices are rising, there probably won't be any listings," adding, "This is the time to buy your own home, even before your jeonse lease expires."

 

Jeong also cited high inflation and the burden of loan repayments as factors worsening housing insecurity. Referring to the consumer price inflation rate of 2.9% in September, she said, "Wages haven't risen that much, while prices have gone up far too much, so things are very difficult." She went on to predict that if more money is injected into the market, including through an expanded budget next year, "prices will rise further, and interest rates will inevitably rise as well."

She said that even if loan restrictions curb home-buying demand, it would be difficult to eliminate demand if there are not enough homes available to rent. Jeong explained, "If people say they can't move because interest rates have risen, they will simply be pushed farther out to the outskirts." She warned that "survival buying" could emerge, with people having no choice but to buy homes to avoid housing insecurity.

An analysis of the Korea Real Estate Board's weekly apartment price trends released on September 29 found that Seoul apartment jeonse prices had risen by a cumulative 10.36% from the first week of February last year through the third week of October this year. This is 1.3 times the 8.94% increase recorded during the longest period of increases on record under the Moon Jae-in administration. Seoul apartment sale prices rose by about 2.3 times as much over the same period, while jeonse prices also climbed sharply.

By contrast, household income has failed to keep pace with rising jeonse prices. According to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey by the Ministry of Data and Statistics, the average monthly income of households with one or more members nationwide was 5,295,000 won in the second quarter, up 4.5% from 5,065,000 won in the same quarter a year earlier. The increase in jeonse prices was equivalent to 3.9 to 7.2 times the increase in income.

With the number of jeonse listings declining and relocation demand from redevelopment projects adding to the pressure, analysts expect this upward trend to continue.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.