Lee Juwan, Who Forecast Samsung at 70,000 Won and SK hynix at 200,000 Won, Says They're "Still Overvalued"; Others Counter: "Fundamentals Are Solid, Correction Is Excessive"

Lee Juwan Reaffirms His Earlier Warning of a Downturn
KB Securities: "Supply-and-Demand and Sentiment to Blame...Earnings Outlook Improves"

Industry analyst Lee Juwan, who drew attention for setting fair stock prices of 70,000 won for Samsung Electronics and 200,000 won for SK hynix, said the two companies remain overvalued.

After breaking a steep decline that lasted through the previous day, the KOSPI opened up more than 1% on Oct. 16. The domestic stock market was displayed on an electronic board at Hana Bank's dealing room in Jung-gu, Seoul. 2026.10.16. Photo by Kang Jinhyung.

On Oct. 16, Lee appeared on YTN Radio's "Cho Taehyun's Lively Economy" and said, "I've been talking about Samsung at 70,000 won and SK hynix at 200,000 won for a year. Back then, no one paid attention." Lee recently made headlines again after a video in which he had warned of a stock price decline resurfaced amid the sharp market downturn.

"Still Overvalued"...Why Strong Earnings Are No Reason to Relax

Lee said Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shares remain at high levels, citing their price-to-book ratios (PBRs). Compared with their historical PBRs, which were generally around 1x, their current share prices are in overvalued territory, he argued.

He said that even taking future earnings improvements into account would not change his assessment. "The price-to-earnings ratio (PER) may fall, but the PBR will remain high," he said, explaining that the PBR would be around 1x only if the share prices fell to the levels he had indicated.

Lee called Samsung Electronics' operating profit of more than 107 trillion won in the third quarter of 2026 "substantial earnings," but said it was necessary to consider whether earnings driven by rising memory prices could be sustained. "The market is questioning whether operating profit will still be 107 trillion won a year from now," he said. "I don't think that's possible."

"Volumes are unchanged, while prices have risen tenfold," Lee said. "Prices can't keep rising forever." He added that once supply normalizes, memory prices will fall and companies' earnings could shrink again to levels that raise concerns about a return to losses.

After rebounding from a sharp decline that continued through the previous day, the KOSPI opened up more than 1% on Oct. 16. The domestic stock market was displayed on an electronic board at Hana Bank's dealing room in Jung-gu, Seoul. 2026.10.16. Photo by Kang Jinhyung

"Memory Price Declines Imminent"...Pushes Back Against Long-Term Boom Outlook

Lee also pushed back against forecasts that high memory prices would persist for an extended period due to supply shortages. "I don't agree that prices will hold," he said, adding that he believes memory prices are nearing their peak.

He said prices could turn downward in the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027. "I cautiously think prices may start falling sometime in the fourth quarter," he said. "I think expecting the trend to last until 2028 or 2030 may be overly optimistic and not reflect reality."

Cautious Despite the Rebound

Lee forecast that the KOSPI could trade in a range around the 5,000-5,500 level before declining further.

He cautioned, however, that he is not a stock market expert and does not analyze stocks. "I don't think this should be seen as a full-fledged rebound," Lee said. "The decline was so rapid that I cautiously expect the market to spend some time trading in a range to moderate the pace."

KB Securities: "Sharp Drop Is an Excessive Correction...Earnings Forecasts Raised Instead"

In contrast, some analysts say the recent share price decline is an excessive correction stemming from supply-and-demand dynamics and investor sentiment. In a report on Oct. 16, Kim Dongwon, head of research at KB Securities, said, "We believe the recent sharp declines in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shares reflect an excessive correction driven by a supply-and-demand vacuum in the Korean stock market and weaker investor sentiment, rather than any deterioration in fundamentals." He added, "Despite the sharp correction in share prices, earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are actually being revised upward."

KB Securities noted that the KOSPI had fallen to a PER of around 8x based on confirmed earnings through the second quarter of 2026, nearing historically undervalued levels seen during the 2003 credit card bond crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. It added, "The valuation reaching levels comparable to those during the financial crisis can be interpreted as the formation of a second bottom for a W-shaped rebound, following the low on July 29."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.