"International Oil Prices Surge Again"... September Import Prices Rise for the First Time in Four Months

September import prices rose 1.7% month on month
Dubai crude averaged $113.71 per barrel... up 28.1%
Prices rose despite a lower exchange rate, led by mining products and coal and petroleum products

Import prices turned upward last month for the first time in four months. Despite a decline in the won-dollar exchange rate, international oil prices surged sharply, driving particularly pronounced increases in import prices for mining products, coal and petroleum products.

September Average Dubai Crude Price Hits $113.71 a Barrel... Import Prices Turn Up for First Time in Four Months

According to the "September 2026 Export and Import Price Indices and Trade Indices (Preliminary)" released by the Bank of Korea on the 16th, the import price index in won terms rose 1.7% from the previous month to 159.37 (2020=100) last month. After surging 18.0% month on month last March in the wake of the Middle East war, import prices fell 2.1% in April. They edged up slightly in May (0.2%), but then fell 4.2%, 1.0% and 2.2% in June, July and August, respectively, before turning upward in September.

A sharp rise in international oil prices, which have a major impact on import prices, drove the increase in import prices in September. The monthly average price of Dubai crude last month was $113.71 per barrel, up 28.1% from $88.75 the previous month. It jumped 62.4% year on year. The won-dollar exchange rate continued to decline. The average won-dollar exchange rate in September was 1,359.0 won, down 3.4% from 1,406.3 won the previous month.

Import prices rose 17.6% year on year, as mining products, coal and petroleum products, and other items increased. The year-on-year rate of increase in import prices, which had exceeded 20% from March through June amid the effects of the Middle East war, gradually eased to 18.8% in July and 15.9% in August, before accelerating again in September.

By use, raw materials rose sharply. Raw material prices jumped 9.6% from the previous month, led by mining products (10.8%), as crude oil prices increased. In contrast, intermediate goods fell 1.7% month on month. Coal and petroleum products (1.5%), including jet fuel and bunker C oil, rose, but primary metal products (-2.8%), including refined aluminum products, declined. Capital goods and consumer goods fell 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively, from the previous month.

Excluding the effect of exchange rates, import prices in contract-currency terms rose 4.9% from the previous month in September. They were up 20.6% year on year.

Import prices are more likely to fall this month. Lee Heunghu, head of the Price Statistics Team at the Bank of Korea's Economic Statistics Department 1, said, "Through mid-October, both the exchange rate and international oil prices declined compared with September," adding, "This will act as a downward factor for import prices in October." However, regarding oil prices, he said uncertainty surrounding the Middle East war remains high, so the situation needs to be monitored further. He expected import prices to continue posting a high, double-digit year-on-year increase under the influence of international oil prices.

Exchange Rates Have a Greater Impact on Export Prices Than on Import Prices, Which Include Crude Oil... DRAM Down 1.2%

The export price index fell 0.8% from the previous month to 182.29 last month. Although coal and petroleum products rose as international oil prices increased, prices for most items fell due to the decline in the exchange rate, marking a second consecutive monthly decrease. Year on year, the index jumped 40.9%, as computer, electronic and optical equipment, and coal and petroleum products, among other items, rose.

Manufactured goods fell 0.8% from the previous month. Coal and petroleum products (8.5%), including diesel and gasoline, rose, but transport equipment (-3.2%) and other items declined. Lee said, "DRAM prices fell 1.2% from the previous month, but rose 2.3% on a contract-currency basis, excluding the exchange-rate effect. Transport equipment was also unchanged at 0.0% on a contract-currency basis," adding, "The decline was mainly due to the exchange-rate effect." Agricultural, forestry and fishery products fell 0.3% month on month as frozen fishery products (-1.0%) declined.

Export prices in contract-currency terms rose 2.6% from the previous month in September. They jumped 44.5% year on year.

The export volume index rose 32.1% year on year, driven by increases in computer, electronic and optical equipment, including semiconductors, computer storage devices and mobile phones, as well as machinery and equipment, including semiconductor manufacturing machinery. This was the highest level in 16 years and eight months, since January 2010 (42.0%). The export value index jumped 89.2%. Over the same period, the import volume index rose 11.1%, as imports of computer, electronic and optical equipment, including semiconductors and computers, and machinery and equipment, including semiconductor manufacturing machinery, increased. The import value index rose 26.9%.

The net barter terms of trade index rose 25.4% in September, as export prices (43.2%, with a time lag applied) increased more sharply than import prices (14.2%). The net barter terms of trade index measures the quantity of goods that can be imported with the proceeds from one unit of exports, indexed against the base period (2020=100). Lee said, "Export price increases widened, led by computer, electronic and optical equipment, but the rise in import prices, including mining products, was greater, reflecting the increase in international oil prices in August, which narrowed the gain in the net barter terms of trade index."

The income terms of trade index, which shows how much the quantity of goods that can be imported with total export proceeds has increased compared with the base period (2020=100), rose 65.7%, as both the net barter terms of trade index (25.4%) and the export volume index (32.1%) increased.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.