[U.S. Midterm Elections D-14] 1. Texas, the Conservative Heartland Is in Trouble

"Texas Republicans Have Forgotten How to Compete"
Even Texas Polls Show Republican Candidate Trailing
Widespread Concern Among Republican Leaders
The 'Ken Paxton' Controversy Behind Voters' Shift Away
Democrat Talarico Campaigns on Christian V

Editor's NoteWith about two weeks to go before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, the contest between Republicans and Democrats for control of the Senate is intensifying. The electoral landscape is shifting as unexpectedly tight races emerge in areas traditionally dominated by Republicans. With Democrats increasingly likely to retake the House, the biggest question in this year's midterms has become whether Republicans can hold on to their Senate majority. The Asia Business Daily will analyze the state of play and key issues in major battlegrounds that will determine the balance of power in the Senate in two installments.

"Texas Republicans have forgotten how to compete."

Rebecca Trahan, a Republican strategist, recently delivered this blunt criticism of her own party in an op-ed for the Houston Chronicle. Her stinging warning came as Texas, a conservative stronghold that had not seen Democrats win a statewide election in more than 30 years, began to look vulnerable.

Recent polls in Texas have repeatedly shown the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate leading the Republican candidate. Republican anxiety has mounted to the point that U.S. President Donald Trump has visited Texas three times in a month to campaign in person for his party. The eyes of the world are also on Texas as it becomes a battleground state.

Texas, a conservative stronghold... The Senate seat Republicans must hold

If a Democratic candidate wins in Texas this year, the party will regain a Senate seat for the first time in 38 years. It would also mark the party's first statewide election victory in 32 years. Such a result would deal a devastating blow to Republicans.

Texas has 40 electoral votes in presidential elections and 38 seats in the House of Representatives, making it the largest base of support for securing power in the next presidential election and in Congress. In other words, Republicans need support from Texas voters to remain competitive in the next presidential and congressional elections. The Financial Times (FT) said the outcome could also determine the final two years of President Trump's term.

In particular, a Democratic victory in Texas would dash Republican plans to retain their Senate majority. The Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and independents who caucus with them. Assuming Democrats hold on to their current seats, they would need to win at least four more to take the majority. But Democrats are expected to make gains in states including North Carolina, Maine and Ohio.

Republican leaders have also voiced concern about the Texas race. On September 1, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Fox News, "Texas is a state Republicans simply cannot afford to lose if we are to keep our Senate majority," adding, "We have to win."

Democratic candidate leads in polls... Cracks emerge in the Republican base

But public opinion in Texas, the heart of conservatism, is gradually shifting toward Democrats. According to a poll released by the University of Texas on October 13, Democratic Texas State Representative James Talarico had a 50% approval rating. That put him 3 percentage points ahead of Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who had 47%.

Other polls showed a similar trend. In a Marist College poll conducted from October 8 to 11, Talarico had 47%, while Paxton had 45%. In August, election analysis organization Cook Political Report changed its rating of the Texas Senate race from "Likely Republican" to "Toss-up."

Support among Republicans in particular appears to be slipping. According to the University of Texas poll, 98% of Democratic voters supported Talarico, while the share of Republican voters supporting Paxton was lower, at 92%. Among voters who supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election, just 89% said they supported Paxton.

The shift in support is believed to reflect dissatisfaction with the candidate rather than a change in public sentiment toward the Republican Party. Paxton is a prominent figure in the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, which supports President Trump. He secured the Republican nomination in May by defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who was seeking a fourth term.

However, Paxton's past came under scrutiny: in 2023, the Texas House impeached him over allegations including abuse of power. He was acquitted in the state Senate impeachment trial, but the episode affected voter sentiment.

More recently, Paxton has faced controversy over his personal life. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on October 13 that it had confirmed Paxton and his girlfriend attended a party in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), in late 2024, where people indicted on federal fraud charges were also present.

Democrat Talarico emphasizes Christian values... and keeps his distance from progressive politicians

Democratic candidate Talarico, meanwhile, is working to win over voters by championing religious values traditionally claimed by Republicans. A former teacher, Talarico draws on his studies in theology at a seminary to deliver political messages emphasizing his religious beliefs. In doing so, he is stressing that religion is not a political asset belonging solely to Republicans.

Voters are also divided by the candidates' differing approaches: Talarico emphasizes love for one's neighbors and protecting vulnerable people on the campaign trail, while Paxton promotes traditional Christian conservatism and evangelicalism. The Texas Tribune wrote in August that the two candidates were reaching out to voters based on different interpretations of Christianity.

Analysts say Talarico's campaign strategy of maintaining some distance from the progressive wing is also proving effective. Senator Bernie Sanders will visit Texas in October, but Talarico has decided not to campaign with him.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.