[U.S. Midterm Elections D-14] 1. Texas, the Conservative Heartland Is in Trouble

"Texas Republicans Have Forgotten How to Compete"
Even Texas Polls Show Republican Candidate Trailing
Widespread Concern Among Republican Leaders
The 'Ken Paxton' Controversy Behind Voters' Shift Away
Democrat Talarico Campaigns on Christian Values

Editor's NoteWith about two weeks to go before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, competition between Republicans and Democrats over control of the Senate is intensifying. The electoral landscape is shifting as unexpectedly tight races emerge, particularly in traditionally Republican strongholds. With Democrats increasingly likely to retake the House, the biggest question in this midterm election has become whether Republicans can hold on to their Senate majority. The Asia Business Daily will examine the state of play and key issues in major battlegrounds that will determine the balance of power in the Senate in a two-part series.

"Texas Republicans have forgotten how to compete."

Rebecca Trahan, a Republican strategist, recently delivered that blunt assessment of her own party in an op-ed for the Houston Chronicle. It was a sobering warning as Texas, a conservative stronghold that has not handed Democrats a statewide election victory in more than 30 years, began to look vulnerable.

Recent polls in Texas have increasingly shown the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate leading the Republican candidate. Republican concerns have mounted to the point that U.S. President Donald Trump has traveled to Texas three times in a single month to campaign in person. Attention from around the world is also turning to the choices voters will make in Texas, now a battleground state.

Texas, the Conservative Stronghold...One Senate Seat Republicans Must Hold

If a Democratic candidate wins in Texas this year, Democrats will regain a Senate seat for the first time in 38 years. It would also mark their first statewide election victory in 32 years. Such a result would deal a devastating blow to Republicans.

Texas has 40 electoral votes in presidential elections and 38 seats in the House of Representatives, making it the largest base of support for securing power in the next presidential election and in Congress. In other words, Republicans need the support of Texas voters to remain competitive in the next presidential and congressional elections. The Financial Times (FT) noted that the result could also shape the final two years of President Trump's term.

In particular, a Democratic victory in Texas would dash Republicans' plans to retain their Senate majority. The Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. To win the majority, Democrats would need to flip at least four seats, assuming they hold on to their current seats. Yet Democrats are expected to make gains in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and other states.

Republican leaders have also voiced concern about the Texas race. On September 1, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Fox News, "Texas is a state we simply cannot afford to lose if Republicans are to keep their Senate majority. We have to win."

Democratic Candidate Leads in Polls...Cracks Emerge in the Republican Base

Public opinion in Texas, the heart of conservatism, is gradually shifting toward Democrats. According to a poll released by the University of Texas on October 13, Democratic Texas state representative James Talarico had a 50% approval rating. That was 3 percentage points ahead of Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who had a 47% rating.

Other polls showed a similar trend. In a Marist College poll conducted October 8-11, Representative Talarico received 47%, while state Attorney General Paxton received 45%. In August, the election analysis organization Cook Political Report changed its rating of the Texas Senate race from "likely Republican" to "Toss Up."

Support among Republican voters has been showing signs of decline in particular. The University of Texas poll found that 98% of Democratic voters supported Representative Talarico, while the share of Republican voters who supported Paxton was lower, at 92%. Among voters who supported President Trump in the 2024 presidential election, the share who said they supported Paxton was only 89%.

The decline in his support appears to reflect dissatisfaction with the candidate rather than a shift in public sentiment against Republicans. Paxton is a key figure in the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement that backs President Trump. In the Republican primary in May, he defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who was seeking a fourth term, to secure the nomination.

However, reports resurfaced that Paxton had been impeached by the Texas House of Representatives in 2023 over allegations including abuse of power. He was acquitted in the state Senate impeachment trial, but the controversy affected voter sentiment.

More recently, Paxton has faced controversy over his personal life. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on October 13 that it had confirmed Paxton attended a party with his girlfriend in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), in late 2024, where guests included people indicted on federal fraud charges.

Democrat Talarico Emphasizes Christian Values...Keeps His Distance from Progressive Politicians

By contrast, Democratic candidate Talarico is seeking to win over voters by emphasizing religious values that Republicans have traditionally claimed as their own. A former teacher, Talarico draws on his studies of theology at a seminary to deliver political messages highlighting his religious beliefs. In doing so, he is emphasizing that religion is not a political asset exclusive to Republicans.

Voters are also divided by the candidates' differing approaches: Talarico emphasizes love for one's neighbors and protecting society's most vulnerable during his campaign, while Paxton preaches traditional Christian conservatism and evangelicalism. The Texas Tribune noted in August that the two candidates were appealing to voters based on different interpretations of Christianity.

Analysts say Talarico's campaign strategy of maintaining some distance from the progressive wing is also proving effective. Senator Bernie Sanders is visiting Texas in October, but Talarico has decided not to campaign alongside him.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.