IEA: "Diesel Supply Shortage to Continue Into Next Year"

Mannamui Gwangjang gas station in Seocho-gu, Seoul (Photo: Yonhap News)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the diesel supply shortage is likely to continue into next year. Analysts say the recent agreement between the United States and Russia on diesel supplies, along with the release of strategic petroleum reserves by various countries, will have only a limited effect.

In its monthly oil market report released on October 14 (local time), the IEA said, "Despite expectations that refining throughput will recover rapidly by the end of the year, diesel supplies in the fourth quarter of this year will be insufficient to meet demand." It added, "This suggests that replenishing depleted inventories will be difficult before the second half of 2027."

The IEA said demand in the international oil market remains strong thanks to support measures by various countries, despite a sharp rise in diesel prices. It explained, "Diesel prices, which are at a record high, are already having broad economic effects, driving up commodity prices and affecting real incomes, economic activity and inflation."

Rising diesel prices are the result of supply shortages. According to the IEA, global diesel supplies last month fell by 700,000 barrels per day compared with September 2025. Supplies fell by 1.3 million barrels per day in Russia and the Middle East alone, where conflicts are ongoing.

To address the supply shortage, IEA member countries also agreed to accelerate the release of strategic petroleum reserves, which they had pledged in March, with a focus on diesel.

U.S. President Donald Trump also recently reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel to the United States and global markets. Stabilizing prices is urgent ahead of next month's midterm elections.

President Trump said 300,000 tons of Russian diesel would be released onto the market immediately, followed by 500,000 tons next month. That amounts to about 6 million barrels, which analysts say is insufficient to make up for the supply shortfall of about 1.5 million barrels per day, based on the third quarter of this year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.