China's 1.4 Billion Population a Statistical Manipulation? Study Says Actual Figure May Be in the 1.2 Billion Range

U.S. Scholar Estimates China's Actual Population at "Around 1.27 Billion"
More Than 100 Million Below Official Figures
Discrepancies Found in Vaccination and School Enrollment Data

A study has found that China, once the world's most populous country, may have more than 100 million fewer people than official statistics indicate. The claim is that its population may be only in the 1.2 billion range, rather than the 1.4 billion range reported by the Chinese government. If true, this is expected to have a significant impact on China's economic growth strategy, which is based on its labor force and consumer market.

A study has found that China, once the world's most populous country, may have more than 100 million fewer people than official statistics suggest. The Asia Business Daily

On October 13 local time, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) cited recent research by Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, raising the possibility that China's official population figures are higher than the actual population. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's population stood at 1.40489 billion at the end of 2025. Professor Yi, however, estimates the actual population at around 1.27 billion. That would be a difference of about 135 million from the official figure.

Analysis of vaccine doses and school enrollment data raises possibility of inflated birth figures

Professor Yi has long questioned China's population statistics. He says that cross-checking government figures on births, school enrollment, hospital deliveries, vaccine doses and household registration records revealed discrepancies among the various statistics that are difficult to explain.

The main evidence cited was the record of tuberculosis vaccinations for newborns. In China, newborns are required to receive the BCG vaccine to prevent tuberculosis within 24 hours of birth. The Asia Business Daily

The primary evidence he cited was records of tuberculosis vaccinations for newborns. In China, newborns are required to receive the BCG vaccine to prevent tuberculosis within 24 hours of birth. Although one vial can be used to vaccinate several people, the time it can be used after opening is limited, meaning the actual number of people vaccinated may be lower than the theoretical maximum.

Professor Yi also said the Chinese government approved about 5.8 million vials of BCG vaccine annually from 2018 to 2020. By contrast, the government reported more than 14 million births annually in most of those years. A simple calculation would mean that each vial had to be used to vaccinate an average of about 2.4 newborns. Professor Yi said that in actual vaccination settings, one vial can be used to vaccinate an average of 1.2 to 1.6 people, pointing to a substantial discrepancy between the reported number of births and the volume of vaccine supplied.

Population born in 2000 fell by 3.5 million over 15 years; discrepancies in age-group statistics pointed out

He also cited the sharp decline over time in the number of people born in a particular year as grounds for suspicion. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that about 17.7 million babies were born in 2000. However, the 2010 census, when they were 10 years old, counted about 14.4 million people in the same birth cohort. Related statistics from 2015, when they would have graduated from middle school, put the figure at about 14.2 million.

Professor Lee also cited the sharp decline over time in the population born in a particular year as grounds for suspicion. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, about 17.7 million babies were born in 2000. The Asia Business Daily

The size of the same birth cohort fell by about 3.5 million over 15 years. Professor Yi believes this difference is difficult to explain fully through population movement or deaths alone. He argues that linking birth and student numbers to local governments' performance evaluations and the amount of financial support they receive has created an incentive to report higher figures than the actual numbers. In some areas, student numbers were reported as 20% to 50% higher than the actual figures to secure more government subsidies, he said. He added that birth records linked to health insurance may also have been overcounted.

Professor Yi criticized China's population-counting methods, arguing that revising statistical figures is much easier than actually raising the birth rate. The concern is that these allegations go beyond population figures and have direct implications for China's long-term economic growth prospects. For many years, China has relied on its vast population to secure an abundant labor force and a huge consumer market. After becoming the world's factory, it is now seeking to transform its economic structure by reducing its dependence on exports and expanding domestic demand.

However, if the actual population is smaller than previously thought, existing estimates of the consumer market's potential size and the future labor force may also have to be revised. In particular, if the population is shrinking faster than expected amid rapidly falling birth rates and an aging population, the resulting pressure on housing demand, consumption, the working-age population, and pension and healthcare finances could also grow.

Even China's official statistics show a clear population decline. China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that the country recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025. As a result, the total population fell by 3.39 million from the previous year, marking its fourth consecutive annual decline. The WSJ noted that China's enormous population had long been an important basis for forecasts that its economy could overtake that of the United States, but questions about the accuracy of its population statistics could also affect those expectations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.