Threats to Grain Export Routes... Put Upward Pressure on Food Prices

Russian forces attacked Ukrainian Black Sea ports the day after U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an "energy ceasefire." Neither country clearly confirmed whether an agreement had been reached, and the targets and duration of the ceasefire have not been made public, raising questions about its effectiveness.


U.S. President Donald Trump. The Asia Business Daily DB

U.S. President Donald Trump. The Asia Business Daily DB

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According to multiple foreign media outlets on October 12 (local time), Russia's Defense Ministry said that it had struck a vessel carrying military supplies to the Ukrainian port of Odesa on the Black Sea coast. It added that it had "continued drone attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure."


President Trump claimed the previous day that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy-sector ceasefire. However, he did not specify what the agreement would cover or how long it would last. Ukraine has called on Russia to agree to a "maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea," saying the Black Sea, a route for grain exports, should also be included.


Russia's attacks on ports are also putting upward pressure on grain prices. During the grain harvest season for wheat and other crops, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian ports along the Black Sea and the Danube River.


The September World Food Price Index, released by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) earlier this month, stood at 136.0, up 5.8% from the same month last year. Although lower than the record high of 160.2 in March 2022, reached in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it was the highest level since November 2022.


As Russia and Ukraine have not confirmed a ceasefire agreement, some interpret President Trump's remarks as pressure aimed at lowering energy prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.



On September 14, President Trump also claimed that the two countries had agreed not to attack energy facilities. Attacks by both sides continued afterward.


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