"Already $279.2 Billion in January-August": Record Current Account Surplus Streak Brings Annual Forecast Within Reach (Roundup)

August Current Account Surplus of $46.11 Billion Ranks Second-Highest on Record
January-August Surplus Reaches $279.2 Billion... Closing in on Annual Forecast
Target Within Reach if Monthly Surpluses Average $42.6 Billion Over Next Four Months... "B

South Korea’s cumulative current account surplus for January-August this year reached $279.2 billion. The August surplus exceeded $46 billion, making it the second-largest on record after June, when it came close to $50 billion. With the record-setting surplus streak continuing, the country moved closer to meeting this year’s current account surplus forecast of $450 billion. To reach the forecast, it would need an average monthly surplus of $42.6 billion over the remaining four months, from September through December. The Bank of Korea said the trend so far is broadly in line with its annual forecast and that the target appears achievable barring any major variables.

Semiconductors shine... goods exports top $100 billion for three consecutive months

South Korea posted a current account surplus of $46.11 billion in August, according to the preliminary August 2026 Balance of Payments released by the Bank of Korea on Oct. 8. The surplus topped $40 billion for the third consecutive month and grew from $42.08 billion the previous month. It was the second-largest on record, after the all-time high of $49.73 billion in June. The August figure also surpassed the record for the second-largest surplus, set just a month earlier in July.

The goods balance, which accounts for the largest share of the current account, drove the overall surplus. The goods balance posted a surplus of $46.81 billion in August, the second-largest on record and a record high for the month. Goods exports reached $104.8 billion on strong semiconductor demand, topping $100 billion for the third consecutive month. This was up 82.1% from the same month a year earlier.

On a customs-clearance basis, August exports of IT products rose 162.6% year over year, while exports of non-IT products increased 8.1%. Among IT products, computer peripherals and solid-state drives (SSDs) rose 366.8%, semiconductors gained 206.1%, and wireless communication devices increased 3.9%. Among non-IT products, petroleum products rose 64.9%, chemicals 14.1%, steel products 13.4%, and machinery and precision equipment 9.2%. Passenger car exports, by contrast, fell 30.1%.

Goods imports totaled $57.99 billion, up 23.8% from the same month a year earlier. On a customs-clearance basis, imports of raw materials rose 13.1% and capital goods increased 42.9%. Consumer goods also grew 4.3%, returning to growth.

Residents’ overseas securities investment posts second-largest increase on record, as bond investment hits an all-time high

The services balance recorded a deficit of $1.68 billion. The travel deficit widened to $770 million, but the overall services deficit narrowed as the transport and intellectual property usage fee balances improved. The transport balance posted a surplus of $520 million, reflecting a recent rise in export freight rates. The travel deficit widened as payments for overseas trips increased during the peak travel season. The intellectual property usage fee balance posted a deficit of $390 million, a smaller shortfall than before.

The primary income balance recorded a surplus of $1.92 billion. The surplus narrowed from the previous month as the dividend income balance posted a surplus of $1.18 billion. The surplus in the dividend income balance shrank partly because securities investment dividends are paid out predominantly in May, August and November, reflecting seasonal factors.

Net assets in the financial account increased by $40.23 billion, a level similar to the previous month’s $40.32 billion. In direct investment, residents’ overseas investment increased by $6.22 billion, while foreign investment in South Korea decreased by $1.61 billion.

In portfolio investment, residents’ overseas investment rose by $16.6 billion, mainly in equities, while foreign investment in South Korea decreased by $4.85 billion. The increase in residents’ overseas securities investment was the second-largest on record, following $17.29 billion in October 2025, the all-time high. Overseas equity investment increased by $10.15 billion, while investment in debt securities rose by $6.44 billion, the largest increase on record.

Foreign investment in South Korean equities decreased by $470 million as the temporary effect of SK hynix’s issuance of American depositary receipts (ADRs) faded. After increasing by $5.98 billion in July, it returned to a decline a month later. Foreign investment in debt securities also fell by $4.38 billion as incentives for arbitrage trades weakened.

At a briefing on the preliminary August 2026 Balance of Payments held at the Bank of Korea in Jung-gu, Seoul, on Aug. 8, (from left) Lim Yeonbin, deputy director of the Balance of Payments Team; Yoo Seonguk, director of the Financial Statistics Department; and Park Seonggon, head of the Balance of Payments Team, answer questions from reporters. Bank of Korea

Annual forecast likely within reach if monthly surpluses average $42.6 billion for the rest of the year

The likelihood of meeting the Bank of Korea’s current account surplus forecast of $450 billion for this year, which it sharply raised in August, is increasing. The cumulative surplus for January-August reached $279.2 billion. The annual forecast could be met if the country posts an average monthly surplus of around $42.6 billion over the remaining four months, from September through December.

Customs-cleared exports in September were stronger than in August. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, exports in September reached $120.94 billion, up 83.5% from the same month last year and a record high. Semiconductors also led export growth. September semiconductor exports surged 262.8% year over year to $60.3 billion, surpassing $60 billion for the first time.

“Our current account surplus forecast for this year was $450 billion for the full year, including $259 billion in the second half. Based on the current account trend through August, including goods exports, we believe the outcome will broadly be in line with our forecast,” said Yoo Seonguk, head of the Financial Statistics Department at the Bank of Korea’s Economic Statistics Bureau 1. Strong semiconductor exports in September, quarter-end effects and the year-end effect in December are among the factors expected to support the forecast.

However, variables include the volume and price trends of semiconductor exports, which have reached high levels; the amount of dividends paid to foreign investors by major companies; and volatility in international oil prices stemming from conflict in the Middle East. “Large dividend payments are scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year under companies’ shareholder return policies, among other factors. For companies with high foreign ownership, dividends may be recorded as payments in the primary income balance, so we need to monitor this,” Yoo said. “The recent escalation in oil price volatility as the conflict in the Middle East continues should also be considered a downside risk.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.