Subscription Supply Up 34% but Competition Rate Halved... Demand Concentrated in Seoul and Phase 3 New Towns

Public Housing Supply Records 19-to-1 First-Round Competition Rate
Competition 4.3 Times Higher Than Private Supply
Private Housing First-Round Applications Down 19.4%
Seoul Posts 63.1-to-1, Accounting for 32% of Applications Nationwide

Although the number of general housing units supplied to this year's housing subscription market increased by 34% compared to the previous year, the average first-round subscription competition rate has dropped by nearly half. Meanwhile, demand is becoming increasingly concentrated in key areas of the greater Seoul area, such as Seoul and the Phase 3 new towns, intensifying the phenomenon of people being highly selective about which properties to apply for.

According to Zigbang on October 6, the nationwide average first-round subscription competition rate for housing allocation announcements this year (January 1 to September 18) was analyzed to be 5.6 to 1, a significant drop from the same period last year (10.2 to 1).

Apartments in Seoul city viewed from Namsan. Photo by Yonhap News

The number of subscription applications has also decreased. The total number of general supply units provided to the subscription market this year reached 85,321, representing a 34% increase from last year’s 63,668 units. However, the number of first-round subscription applications dropped by 26.6% to 475,009, compared to 646,891 last year.

By type of supply, public housing supply outpaced private-sector supply in terms of competition rates. Public housing accounted for 20 complexes nationwide, offering 6,735 units, and received 127,842 applications. The average first-round competition rate for public supply was 19 to 1, down from 38.1 to 1 last year, but still 4.3 times higher than the competition rate for private supply (4.4 to 1). Competition was especially high in Phase 3 new towns and key sites in the greater Seoul area. Namyangju Wangsuk 2 District A3 recorded the highest competition rate at 126.8 to 1, followed by Wangsuk Atelier (A1) at 105.5 to 1, and Hwaseong Dongtan 2 District C27 Block at 100.6 to 1.

For private-sector projects, a total of 191 complexes, or 78,586 units, were supplied and they received 347,167 applications. While the supply of general units grew by 35.5% compared to last year, the average first-round competition rate for private-sector supply was 4.4 to 1, a decline from last year’s 7.4 to 1.

The gap in competition rates between projects with and without the sale price cap system has also narrowed. The average first-round competition rate for price cap-applied projects was 10.8 to 1, roughly 2.9 times higher than the 3.7 to 1 competition rate for non-price-capped projects. However, this gap has fallen from 5.8 times last year to 2.9 times this year.

By region, Seoul recorded the highest average first-round competition rate at 63.1 to 1. Although this is less than half of the previous year’s 132.9 to 1, all 22 projects supplied this year in Seoul saw first-round applications surpass the general supply volume. By project, Acro Seocho in Seocho District received 32,973 applications for 30 general units, marking the highest competition rate in the country at 1,099.1 to 1. Ottier Banpo followed at 710.2 to 1, and Ichon Le-EL at 135.0 to 1. All three of the top-ranked projects in terms of competition rate were located in the Gangnam area and Yongsan District and were subject to the sale price cap system.

Eunsun Kim, Head of the Zigbang Research Lab, commented, “This year’s subscription market saw varying results even among complexes within the same region and type of supply. Rather than supply expansion leading to an overall increase in housing subscription demand, it appears that demand will continue to be selectively guided by the competitiveness of location and sale price, as well as the surrounding supply environment.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.