[Market ING] KOSPI Attempts to Settle at 7,000 Points, Eyes on Samsung Electronics' Earnings

Weekly KOSPI Expected Trading Band: 6,500–7,500 Points

Last week, the KOSPI was volatile as it reflected events during the early-week Chuseok holiday, but ultimately rebounded and ended the week above the 7,000-point mark. As the KOSPI is expected to attempt a firm settlement above 7,000 this week, market attention is likely to focus on Samsung Electronics’ earnings results.

Yonhap News Agency

Last week, the KOSPI declined by 1.09%, while the KOSDAQ rose by 5.78%. Jaewon Lee, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, explained, “Despite the pressure of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 5%, strong earnings from Micron and robust semiconductor exports supported the lower end of the index,” adding, “As we enter the third-quarter earnings season in October, it is not so much the high-interest rate itself but the presence or absence of profits that can withstand such rates, which now determines each sector’s performance.”

With the KOSPI regaining ground thanks to Micron’s strong results, attention turns to whether the upcoming earnings announcement from Samsung Electronics will sustain the bullish sentiment. Samsung Electronics is scheduled to release its preliminary results for the third quarter of this year on the 8th. Kyungmin Lee, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated, “Earnings forecasts for the KOSPI in 2026 and 2027 are currently being downward revised to 98.41 billion won and 133.32 billion won, respectively. Similarly, semiconductor operating profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are being lowered to 70.05 billion won and 101.6 billion won. This suggests that uncertainties and market anxiety related to earnings are already being priced in.” He added, “On the other hand, rising memory prices, strong Korean exports, and Micron’s robust performance are all positive factors for Samsung Electronics’ results. There is a high likelihood that Samsung Electronics’ earnings guidance will meet or surpass the lowered market expectations.” He further noted, “If profit forecasts begin to be revised upward again, we can expect both a recovery of semiconductor-led momentum and a stable settlement of the KOSPI above the 7,000-point mark.”

As earnings season begins with Samsung Electronics’ announcement, some analysts emphasize the need to focus on earnings-based strategies. Researcher Jaewon Lee commented, “Rather than hoping for a rapid disappearance of high interest rates, we should identify which sectors can generate profits under the current rate environment. Although the KOSPI has reclaimed the 7,000-point level, a full reversal to net foreign buying in the spot market and a sustained stabilization of long-term rates have not yet been confirmed. Therefore, it is advisable to maintain an earnings-focused approach rather than chasing the index.” He pointed out, “Sectors where both actual capital expenditure (Capex) and profits are demonstrable—such as semiconductors, AI infrastructure, power infrastructure, semiconductor materials, components and equipment, and substrates—are most promising.”

Some also argue that improvement in macroeconomic conditions is crucial to break out of the current trading range. Jeonghwan Na, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “While the KOSPI is moving sideways within a box range, the upward trajectory of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is capping the top end of the index. Improvement in macroeconomic conditions is necessary to break through the upper bound of the range.” He predicted, “Possible triggers could include a sharp drop in international oil prices due to progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, or weak U.S. economic indicators lowering the likelihood of an October rate hike.” NH Investment & Securities presented KOSPI’s expected trading band for this week at 6,500–7,500 points.

Key events this week include the release of the U.S. September ISM services index on the 5th and the publication of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on the 8th. On the 9th, the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index for October will be announced.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.