September Consumer Prices Rise 2.9%...Persistent Uncertainty in Petroleum and Food (Comprehensive)

September Consumer Price Data Released by Ministry of Data and Statistics

Agricultural Products Drive Decline, While Upward Pressure from Petroleum Persists

The consumer price inflation rate for September stood at 2.9%, falling back below the 3% range after just one month. This was attributed to stabilized agricultural product prices, as shipments of fruits such as apples and pears increased ahead of Chuseok and the government provided additional discount support. However, inflationary pressure persists, as petroleum product prices remain elevated at around 14%, and prices for processed foods continue to rise.

According to the 'Consumer Price Trends for September 2026' released by the Ministry of Data and Statistics on October 2, the consumer price index (CPI) for last month was 120.43 (2020=100), up 2.9% from the same month a year ago. The inflation rate previously rose due to the impact of the Middle East war—3.1% in May and 3.2% in June—then dropped to 2.8% in July before climbing again to 3.1% in August. It should be noted, however, that August saw a temporary spike due to the base effect from last year's SK Telecom rate discount. Excluding this factor, the August rate would have been around 2.5%. It is also possible to interpret September's prices as having risen slightly. Since the Middle East war, the inflation rate has stayed above the Bank of Korea's price stability target of 2% for about half a year.

On the 21st, citizens are shopping at a large supermarket in Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

Agricultural Products Down 4.0%...Fruit Prices Stabilize

The price of agricultural, livestock, and fishery products fell by 0.3% from a year earlier. Agricultural products dropped by 4.0%, lowering the overall inflation rate by 0.17 percentage points. Major fruits declined—apples by 9.2%, peaches by 14.7%, and grapes by 10.3%. Lee Dowon, Director of Economic Trends Statistics at the Ministry of Data and Statistics, explained, "Due to favorable harvests of apples and pears, shipments increased in time for the Chuseok holiday, leading to a greater drop in fruit prices." On the other hand, vegetable prices, which had fallen 9.8% in August, remained flat in September as shipments reduced, while pumpkins surged by 46.9%. The prices of livestock and fishery products each rose by 3.7% and 4.5%, respectively, as Chuseok demand overlapped with decreased supply.

Photo by Yonhap News Agency, showing a gas station in downtown Seoul on the 2nd.

Petroleum Products Up 14.8%...Processed Foods and Industrial Goods Also Rise

Petroleum products continued to drive inflation the most, jumping 14.8% amid ongoing effects from the Middle East war and contributing 0.56 percentage points to overall inflation. The Ministry of Economy and Finance estimated that the price ceiling system reduced inflation by 0.6 percentage points; without this system, the September inflation rate would have reached 3.5%. Industrial products gained 4.2%. Computer prices surged by 27.4% due to rising semiconductor prices, and mobile phone prices spiked by 8.3% following the launch of a new iPhone. Director Lee further noted, "The expected price increase for new Galaxy S series phones will likely cause mobile phone prices to continue rising for the time being."

Processed foods increased 2.1% due to price hikes, while service prices rose by 2.7%. International airfares soared 22.5% and overseas package tour costs surged 19.3%, mainly due to increased fuel surcharges. The index excluding agricultural products and petroleum products increased by 2.7%, and the index excluding food and energy rose by 2.8%. The index for daily necessities climbed 2.5%, while the fresh food index declined by 3.3%.

The Government: "Upward Pressure on Inflation Remains...Strengthening Control Over Petroleum and Agricultural Products"

Lee Juseop, Director-General for the Living Economy at the Ministry of Economy and Finance, chaired a government meeting on price-related affairs and a cross-ministerial task force on the same day. He noted, "Despite rising international oil prices, the government’s efforts to stabilize inflation have resulted in a consumer price increase in the 2% range for September." He further stated that agricultural, livestock, and fishery product prices have fallen year-over-year for two consecutive months, thanks to record-high government support and expanded supply measures as part of Chuseok stabilization initiatives. With the risk of prolonged inflation due to the ongoing Middle East war, the government will strengthen supply and price controls on agricultural, livestock, and fishery products. For petroleum products, the government aims to stabilize prices through the price ceiling system and fuel tax reductions, and will continue to support vulnerable groups with fuel subsidies and related assistance.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.