[Good Morning Market] Korean Stocks Expected to Rise Slightly... "Market Focused on U.S. Employment Data"

U.S. Markets Close Firm on Dovish Fed Remarks

"Domestic Equities to Open Higher, But Gains Seen Limited"

It is expected that the domestic stock market will open higher, driven by dovish remarks from officials of the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, analysts believe that gains will be limited due to a wait-and-see sentiment surrounding upcoming U.S. employment data.

On the 29th, employees are monitoring the stock market and exchange rates in the dealing room at Hana Bank's headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. On this day, the KOSPI index opened at 6,844.41, down 45.33 points (0.66%) from the previous session, and the KOSDAQ began at 843.87, down 2.71 points (0.32%). September 29, 2026 Photo by Jo Yongjun

On the 1st (local time), the S&P 500 index closed at 7,666.45, up 14.91 points (0.19%) from the previous session. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 10.53 points (0.04%) to finish at 26,871.60, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 20.51 points (0.04%) to close at 50,926.56.

Although the market showed weakness until mid-session, weighed down by upward pressure on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and a sharp increase in the September Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), it rebounded to close with modest gains. This turnaround was fueled by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s comments that “policy adjustments will take time,” as well as stronger-than-expected earnings from Micron (up 3.0%) and Accenture (up 15.8%).

On the 2nd, the U.S. September employment data is expected to be the market’s main short-term focus. The consensus for new jobs added in September is 100,000, which is lower than the 162,000 posted in August.

Even if September employment shows signs of slowing, it is unlikely to lead to a drop in U.S. market interest rates. This is because the recent increase in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been driven by factors such as a rise in the supply of government and corporate bonds (inflating the term premium) as well as technical selling in the bond market. However, considering that employment data could partially moderate the pace of rising market rates, it is expected that as long as the September data meets consensus forecasts, the equity market may see some relief from rate concerns.

On this day, the domestic market is projected to start higher, buoyed by dovish remarks from Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and a strong showing from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which rose over 1%. However, due to market participants awaiting employment data and the effect of the domestic holiday period, some profit taking may occur during the session, thus limiting the upside momentum.

Although the domestic stock market continues to face headwinds from rising market interest rates and increased oil price volatility, expectations for earnings improvement provide upward momentum. Micron’s announcement the previous day that it has secured over 75% of next year’s shipments, presenting an optimistic outlook, and the inclusion of DRAM as a supply-short item in the September ISM Manufacturing PMI for the first time this year both help ease concerns over an earnings slowdown in the domestic market.

Another positive factor is that Korea’s exports in September, released just ahead of this year’s Q3 earnings season, recorded an all-time high. September exports increased by 83.5% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus growth rate of 61.7%.

Han Jiyoung, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, commented, "In the process of frequently experiencing fatigue from rising U.S. interest rates, it is natural for investors to feel the urge to reduce their equity holdings." However, he added, "Starting from next week’s preliminary results from Samsung Electronics, the upcoming third quarter earnings season will shed light on whether the earnings cycle remains intact. Thus, it is appropriate to prioritize overweighting sectors tied to the AI value chain, such as semiconductors, materials, components, equipment (Small & Medium Cap Technology companies listed on KOSDAQ), and IT hardware."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.