"East Antarctica Is Also at Risk"... Wilkes Basin Holds Potential for 3-4m Sea Level Rise [Reading Science]

Risks of Ice Sheet Collapse in East Antarctica Rival Those of the West
Gap in On-site Observations Remains

Korea Polar Research Institute to Begin Cook Ice Shelf Exploration from 2028

An international research team has analyzed that even in East Antarctica, which was previously considered relatively stable, there is a risk of ice sheet collapse comparable to that of West Antarctica. The region contains massive ice sheets that, if completely melted, could raise global sea levels by 3 to 4 meters; however, due to a lack of on-site observation, it is difficult to predict when and how quickly this collapse might occur.

The Korea Polar Research Institute announced on October 1 that the collaborative analysis of 39 experts from 13 countries, including Principal Researcher Lee Wonsang, has been published in the international academic journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

3D topography of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica. (a) Ice sheet surface elevation and main glaciers and ice shelves. (b) Bedrock topography with ice removed, showing most of the basin floor lying below sea level. Provided by the research team.

The area of particular focus for the research team is the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, located in the George V Land region of East Antarctica. Here, the bedrock beneath the ice sheet lies below sea level and gets deeper inland. This structure makes it susceptible to “marine ice sheet instability,” a phenomenon in which the retreat of glaciers that meet the ocean rapidly accelerates after passing a certain threshold.

Actual changes are already being observed. After the collapse of the western part of the Cook Ice Shelf, the speed at which the termini of upstream glaciers move has nearly doubled, from 650 meters per year to more than 1,200 meters per year. Since 1996, the grounding lines—the boundaries where the glacier lifts off the bedrock and begins to float—of some parts of the Mertz and Cook Glaciers have been retreating by approximately 400 meters per year.

Research vessels could not come within 150 km… Korean expedition planned for 2028

The problem lies in the severe lack of observational data available to determine how much faster these changes may occur in the future. Prediction models suggest that if the grounding line of the Cook Glacier moves beyond a bedrock high point about 70 kilometers inland, rapid retreat may be triggered. However, the estimated timing and scale of such changes differ significantly between models.

Due to thick sea ice, research vessels have never approached within 150 kilometers of the Cook Ice Shelf, so even basic seafloor depth data have not been obtained. The research team pointed out that this observational gap is one of the major obstacles to predicting the future of the Wilkes Basin and the resulting sea level rise.

Therefore, they proposed the need for international joint observation using autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to directly explore beneath the ice shelf, as well as aerial radar and subglacial drilling. They emphasized that the fifth International Polar Year (IPY-5), scheduled for 2032–2033, should be used as an opportunity for large-scale joint observation.

Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During Present and Past Warm Periods. (a) Present Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet. (b) Model Reproducing the Pliocene Warm Period, Showing Coastal Ice Sheet Greatly Retreated Inland. Provided by Research Team

The Korea Polar Research Institute will also launch direct on-site expeditions. Principal Researcher Lee’s team plans to conduct explorations of the Cook Ice Shelf area using an icebreaking research vessel during the Antarctic summer seasons of 2028–2029 and 2030–2031, drawing on their experience in thermal water drilling and on-site research at the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica.

Principal Researcher Lee said, “The Wilkes Basin, which is one of the key Antarctic ice sheets affecting sea level rise in Korea, rivals West Antarctica in scale and the potential for rapid retreat. Yet research so far has been very limited. We will leverage our drilling and on-site observation capabilities developed at the Thwaites Glacier and expand them to East Antarctica to improve the accuracy of sea level rise prediction.”

Shin Hyungchul, director of the Korea Polar Research Institute, stated, “While East Antarctica has generally been regarded as relatively stable compared to the rapidly changing West Antarctic region, this study provides grounds to reconsider that perception. Taking the opportunity of the fifth International Polar Year, we will actively participate in international cooperation to close observation gaps in Antarctica.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.