McKinsey: "AI May Force 11 Million Americans to Switch Occupations"

An analysis has suggested that over the next decade, more than 10 million workers in the United States may need to transition to new occupations due to the spread of artificial intelligence (AI).

On the 29th (local time), global consulting firm McKinsey reported that approximately 11 million American workers may have to change occupations by 2035 as a result of job displacement caused by AI. This accounts for about 7% of the current workforce. Taking uncertainties into consideration, McKinsey estimated that the actual number of workers needing to switch occupations could reach between 6 million and 16 million.

Until now, about 215,000 American workers have changed occupations each year, but this figure could triple over the next ten years. McKinsey's analysis indicated that among every 7 workers expected to change jobs, 6 will require significant retraining and may also experience a decrease in income.

McKinsey further analyzed that full-time workers in office·administrative support, retail·sales, and transportation·logistics sectors are most likely to need to change occupations. Customer service representatives, cashiers, and warehouse workers are typical examples. In particular, low-income earners are expected to be disproportionately affected. McKinsey projected that low-income workers will be about eight times more likely than high-income workers to have to change occupations.

Additionally, even if enough new jobs become available, workers will not necessarily be able to move into them immediately. If new positions require different skills, qualifications, work locations, or pay structures compared to existing ones, millions may find themselves unable to secure employment. The report proposed that, to support workers making such transitions, the government should provide more timely and detailed labor market information, and expand support for retraining programs.

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