Names Mentioned Ahead of Nobel Prize in Literature Announcement: Chan Hsueh, Haruki Murakami, and Margaret Atwood Back in the Spotlight

Announcement Set for October 8:
Chan Hsueh, Haruki Murakami, Margaret Atwood, and Gerald Murnane Among Leading Contenders

Four Authors Appear Across Publisher and Bookseller Predictions;
Readers Favor Atwood

Hyesoon Kim Also Recognized;
New Releases and Translations by Candidate Authors Arriving

'There are candidates, but nobody knows'... Names Mentioned Ahead of the Nobel Prize in Literature Announcement
With only ten days left until the announcement of this year's Nobel Prize in Literature, the global literary and publishing communities have once again entered the “season of predictions.” The list of expected candidates is growing longer, ranging from established figures like Chinese writer Chan Hsueh, Japanese writer Haruki Murakami, Canadian writer Margaret Atwood, and Australian writer Gerald Murnane—whose names have long circulated as potential recipients—to writers gaining recent prominence through international literary awards.

Chinese writer Chan Xue (left) and Japanese writer Haruki Murakami, who are gaining renewed attention ahead of the Nobel Prize in Literature announcement. They are once again ranked among the top favorites in overseas betting markets and the publishing industry this year. Munhakdongne

According to the literary community on September 28, the Swedish Academy will announce the winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature on October 8 at 1 p.m. local time (8 p.m. Korean time). Nominations and the opinions of the selection committee will remain sealed for 50 years. As in previous years, with no official shortlist provided, attention is being gauged through the names repeatedly mentioned by global literary circles, publishers, bookstores, and betting markets.

A comparison of various predictions within Korea reveals an interesting overlap. Among the 21 names compiled recently by Munhakdongne, 21 suggested by Minumsa Publishing Group, and 10 chosen by Youngpoong Bookstore, four authors—Chan Hsueh, Haruki Murakami, Margaret Atwood, and Gerald Murnane—appeared on all lists. Minumsa's candidate pool also included Thomas Pynchon, Joyce Carol Oates, Yoko Tawada, Mircea Cartarescu, and Cesar Aira, while Youngpoong Bookstore expanded their group to include Hyesoon Kim, Lyudmila Ulitskaya, Michel Houellebecq, and Anne Carson.

Among foreign betting markets, Chan Hsueh stands out as a frontrunner. UK bookmaker Ladbrokes currently offers 10-to-1 odds for Chan Hsueh. Haruki Murakami follows at 14-to-1, with Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Gerald Murnane, Mircea Cartarescu, and Thomas Pynchon at 16-to-1. Lyudmila Ulitskaya is at 18-to-1, while Margaret Atwood and Michel Houellebecq are at 20-to-1. As in previous years, these odds are not a definitive forecast, but rather reflect the shifting interests of the international literary world ahead of the announcement.

Leading contender Chan Hsueh’s background is quite distant from the traditional path of elite writers. Born Deng Xiaohua in Hunan Province, China, in 1953, she left school after elementary school during the Cultural Revolution and worked a variety of jobs—assembling machine tools, transporting carts, and even serving as a so-called barefoot doctor. She started out as a seamstress before making her literary debut in 1985 at the age of 32.

With works like “The Banquet Street,” blending dreams and reality, desire and anxiety, she has become a leading figure in Chinese avant-garde literature. The English translation of “The Last Lover” won the Best Translated Book Award in the United States in 2015, and “Love in the New Millennium” made the 2019 International Booker Prize longlist. It is also famous that Susan Sontag once remarked, “If there is a writer in China who could receive the Nobel Prize in Literature, it would be Chan Hsueh.” Munhakdongne has published “The Banquet Street” in Korea and plans to release a new collection of her works titled “Maze.”

Haruki Murakami, long synonymous with the Nobel Prize in Literature season, is once again in the spotlight. Debuting in 1979 with “Hear the Wind Sing,” he built a global following through works like “Norwegian Wood,” “The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle,” “Kafka on the Shore,” “1Q84,” and “The City and Its Uncertain Walls.” The fact that his works are translated into more than 50 languages attests to his status as a truly “global writer,” but every autumn his name reappears among the expected candidates.

Salman Rushdie (left) and Margaret Atwood, who have been consistently mentioned as candidates for the Nobel Prize in Literature. Rushdie is a leading figure in world literature with works such as Midnight's Children and The Satanic Verses, while Atwood is known for The Handmaid's Tale and The Blind Assassin. Munhakdongne·EPA/Yonhap News

Among Korean readers, preference leans toward Margaret Atwood. In a predictive poll conducted by Yes24 from September 3 to 10, Atwood ranked first with 22%. Salman Rushdie came in second at 17%, followed by Chan Hsueh at 16%. Atwood has explored topics such as the female body, power, totalitarianism, and environmental issues for nearly half a century through works like “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “The Blind Assassin,” and “The Testaments.” She has won the Booker Prize twice: in 2000 and 2019.

As the announcement approaches, book sales are also shifting. In October 2024, Chan Hsueh’s books sold 690% more than in the previous month, while Atwood's sales increased by 84.1% in October of the previous year.

It is notable that Salman Rushdie ranked second in the reader poll. Having won the Booker Prize for “Midnight’s Children” in 1981, he endured decades of death threats following “The Satanic Verses,” and in 2022, he lost sight in his right eye after a stabbing attack just before a lecture in Chautauqua, New York. He later published a memoir, “Knife,” directly addressing the attack, once again drawing the realities surrounding freedom of expression and his survival into literature.

Gerald Murnane has also grown closer to Korean readers recently. Born in Australia in 1939, he is known for never having traveled abroad or flown on an airplane. His singular works, which pursue memories, images, and inner landscapes, have earned international acclaim. He gained recognition with “The Plains” in 1982, took a long hiatus, then returned to writing after nine years.

In Korea, his autobiographical novel “Border Districts” was newly published on September 17. The book, which explores the landscapes of memory through light and color, won the 2018 Prime Minister’s Literary Award in Australia. During last year’s Nobel Prize season, domestic sales of “The Plains” and “A Precious Cursed Thing” increased by nearly 18 times compared to the previous month.

Hyesoon Kim, Poet. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

In Korea, the name of poet Hyesoon Kim has resurfaced. Hyesoon Kim received the International Griffin Poetry Prize in 2019 for “Autobiography of Death” and, with the English edition of “Phantom Pain Wings,” won the poetry category of the 2024 National Book Critics Circle Award (NBCC) in the United States. It was the first time a Korean writer received this award. Following Han Kang’s win in 2024, the global reading market’s interest in Korean literature has expanded, and Youngpoong Bookstore included Hyesoon Kim on their list of ten featured authors this year.

The phenomenon surrounding the Nobel Prize in Literature is no longer limited to just guessing the winner. Jo Sunyoung, head of the book business division at Yes24, said, “Following Han Kang’s win, Korean readers’ interest in the Nobel Prize in Literature has grown further." In fact, from about a month before the announcement, sales of books by authors discussed as candidates begin to rise, and newly published translations and releases are added to readers’ selections.

The predicted lists change every year, and most fail to accurately forecast the recipient. Still, the ten days leading up to the Nobel Prize in Literature announcement are a rare time when readers’ attention is drawn to authors and works they might not normally reach for. Shin Hoyoung, head of the online team at Youngpoong Bookstore, said, “No one knows who will receive the Nobel Prize in Literature until the announcement itself, but from now on, readers can open books by authors considered possible winners. I hope this will be an opportunity for readers to discover authors and works they hadn’t known before.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.