Tax Surplus Tops 50 Trillion Won on Semiconductor Boom... Future Response Fund to Exceed 200 Trillion Won

MOEF Revenue Re-Estimation: Annual National Tax at 465.4 Trillion Won Plus
Interim Corporate Tax Payments by Semiconductor Giants During August-September
Full Allocation of Surplus Tax Revenue to Future Fund Remains Undecided

The government’s revised estimate of this year’s tax surplus, reflecting the booming semiconductor market, is reported to have exceeded 50 trillion won. In line with this, the total volume of the Future Response Fund—available for government operation next year—is now likely to surpass 200 trillion won.

According to relevant government ministries as of September 27, the Ministry of Economy and Finance judged that the tax surplus would exceed 50 trillion won in the ‘2026 National Tax Revenue Re-estimation,’ set to be announced at the end of this month. This figure significantly surpasses the tax revenue increased earlier this year through a supplementary budget amendment approved by the National Assembly in April.

As a result, annual tax revenue for the year is expected to reach 465.4 trillion won—about 50 trillion won higher than the 415.4 trillion won projection in the supplementary budget. This breaks the all-time record set in 2022 of 395.9 trillion won, marking a new peak after four years. Compared to last year's tax revenue of 373.9 trillion won, it represents an increase of more than 91.5 trillion won.

On the 5th, an employee is organizing 50,000 won bills at the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

Corporate Earnings and Consumption Recovery... Growth Across Major Tax Categories

The increase in tax revenue is also sharply reflected in the published revenue performance. According to the cumulative national tax revenue for January to July released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance on July 31, the figure stood at 274 trillion won—up 41.4 trillion won from the same period last year. The supplementary budget’s progress rate came in at 66.0%, exceeding the five-year average progress (63.5%) by 2.5 percentage points.

By tax category, corporate tax (51.8 trillion won) increased by 4.4 trillion won, supported by improved corporate earnings. Income tax (89.3 trillion won) also rose by 12.2 trillion won, thanks to performance bonuses and a rise in real estate transaction volumes. Value-added tax (69.4 trillion won) grew by 8.1 trillion won due to expanded private consumption and imports. Securities transaction tax, boosted by a bullish stock market, surged 348.5% year-on-year to 8.2 trillion won, while the special tax for rural development, which tracks KOSPI trading volume, jumped 182.5% to 13.1 trillion won.

The interim corporate tax payments due in August and September will play a decisive role in determining whether the total tax surplus for the year exceeds 50 trillion won. To reach that target, an additional 191.4 trillion won must be collected over the remaining five months from August to December. The main reason the government considers this achievable is the interim corporate tax payments being made by semiconductor firms during August and September.

The cumulative corporate tax revenue up to July (51.8 trillion won) does not yet reflect interim payments by companies whose fiscal year ends in December. Among the business groups subject to public disclosure, December year-end firms pre-calculate and report their half-year performance by the end of August, paying in installments over two months until September if the tax exceeds 10 million won. Given that first-half operating profits for just Samsung Electronics (146.7 trillion won) and SK hynix (98.2 trillion won) alone nearly reached 245 trillion won, these interim payments are expected to be a critical factor determining total tax revenue.

Hongkeun Park, Minister of Planning and Budget, is attending the video cabinet meeting between Sejong and Seoul held on the 22nd at the Government Seoul Office Cabinet Meeting Room in Jongno-gu, Seoul. 2026.9.22 Photo by Yongjun Cho

'Fiscal Reservoir' Future Response Fund to Expand Significantly

This tax revenue surge is directly linked to the strengthening of the proposed Future Response Fund. The government explains that the fund is a ’fiscal reservoir’ designed to overcome the limitations of an annual budget system. By investing in youth, new growth engines, local regions, and education and talent, the plan aims to boost the potential growth rate; if tax revenues weaken and a deficit occurs, the fund will shore up the fiscal capacity. The government’s budget proposal for next year includes 45.4 trillion won of investment and a reduction in new government bond issuance by 12.5 trillion won for the Future Response Fund.

The core ‘additional tax revenue’ forming the Fund’s base is 162.3 trillion won. This comes from parts of the national tax revenue estimate for 2027 that exceed the 10-year trend, and is separate from the tax surplus to be re-estimated later this month. Adding even the minimum 50 trillion won from this year's tax surplus brings the total to 212.3 trillion won.

While it remains undecided whether the entire tax surplus will be allocated to the Future Response Fund, there is wide expectation the fund will comfortably exceed 200 trillion won, as it can also utilize leftover general surplus and returns from idle fund management.

Hongkeun Park, Minister of Planning and Budget, indicated on the 17th that, once the revenue re-estimation results are out, the Ministry will make its decision on using the tax surplus through internal discussions and consultations with the Presidential Office and the Ministry of Economy and Finance, in accordance with the law.

Legal Grounds for Three-Year Carryover... Project Inclusion Rate Reaches 95%

Meanwhile, it has been confirmed that the government has submitted a bill to the National Assembly allowing national subsidy project funds allocated to the regional accounts of the Future Response Fund to be used over up to three years, until the next-next fiscal year. If the bill passes as is, certain items in the regional account allocation for the 2027 Future Response Fund may be executed over three years, until 2029, provided specific requirements are met.

Additionally, out of the 131 pure spending projects proposed for next year’s Future Response Fund, about 95% (125 projects) were included in the budget as originally requested by ministries or with supplemental or increased amounts. Only six projects saw reductions compared to ministry budget requests.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.