[Market ING] KOSPI Settles Above 7,000; Focus on U.S. Economic Data and Micron Earnings

Last week, the KOSPI maintained its upward momentum and settled above the 7,000 mark. This week, the market is expected to pay close attention to U.S. economic data and Micron's earnings announcement, as it digests the effects of events that occurred during the recent holiday break.

Yonhap News Agency

Last week, the KOSPI climbed 2.71%, and the KOSDAQ advanced by 2.10%. Jeongeun Lim, an analyst at KB Securities, stated, "Both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ posted weekly gains in the 2% range last week," adding, "With the Korean stock market closed for the Chuseok holiday on the 24th and 25th, it is important to assess whether the results of the U.S.-China summit and Micron's earnings announcement during the holiday may serve as upward catalysts for the market."

Analysts note that downward pressure has eased and positive factors have grown stronger, allowing the KOSPI to gradually reach new highs. Jinhyuk Kang, an analyst at Shinhan Investment & Securities, explained, "Macro issues that have weighed on the market, such as the Middle East situation and interest rates, have passed their turning point, while the issues that are improving investor sentiment in artificial intelligence (AI) are strengthening the market's upward momentum. As a result, the KOSPI is seeing both higher lows and higher highs." He continued, "Relays of positive momentum for semiconductors—Micron's earnings, September export indicators, and Samsung Electronics' preliminary results (in early October)—can reinforce this trend. Solid fundamentals provide justification for the recent sharp rally."

Several important events are scheduled to influence the market after the Chuseok holiday, leading the market to focus on key indicators such as inflation, job data, and Micron's earnings. First, on September 30, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be released. Kyungmin Lee, an analyst at Daishin Securities, commented, "The headline PCE for August is expected to rise by 3.7% year-on-year, and the core PCE by 3.4%." She added, "Depending on the gap from consensus (the average of brokerage house forecasts), the probability of a 25bp (1bp=0.01 percentage point) rate hike and fluctuations in bond yields at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in October will be determined. As the financial services component, which drove up PCE in July, has been revised, it is unlikely the actual result will exceed expectations."

On the same day, Micron's earnings announcement is also scheduled. Lee stated, "This is a starting point to gauge the outlook and earnings for the semiconductor industry," and noted, "Market expectations are for revenue of around $52 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) between $32.5 and $33. A positive surprise exceeding these figures is needed." She continued, "Even more important is whether next quarter's earnings guidance can surpass the projected $56.9 billion and if the gross margin (GM) can be maintained at 86%."

The key economic events this week include the following: on September 28, the U.S. Dallas Federal Reserve's September Manufacturing Index; on September 29, the U.S. Conference Board's September Consumer Confidence Index and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); on September 30, China's September National Bureau of Statistics Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the U.S. September ADP private employment numbers, and the U.S. August PCE Price Index. On October 1, Korea will release September export figures and the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, followed by the U.S. September employment report on October 2.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.