"450,000 Deaths Expected by Early Next Year"... World's Worst-Ever El Nino Forecast Spurs Global Alarm

University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab Report
Deaths Concentrated in the Global South

A study has found that around 450,000 people could die from heat between the second half of this year and early next year, when the world is expected to experience the most severe El Nino on record.

On September 23 (local time), the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago released a report stating that about 451,000 people could die from heat-related illnesses between September 2026 and February 2027 due to extreme heat caused by El Nino. This figure is an estimate of 'excess deaths' compared to the average annual death toll. In other words, it models how many more people are expected to die compared to a scenario without El Nino. El Nino is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific rise abnormally, causing unusual weather patterns around the world.

El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise abnormally. NASA

The research team analyzed the correlation between temperatures and excess mortality in over 24,000 regions worldwide, combining this with long-term temperature projections to estimate the number of excess deaths caused by El Nino relative to the 1996-2025 average. As a result, the study predicted that deaths would be concentrated mostly in the 'Global South'—regions that are poorer and have less developed infrastructure.

By country, Nigeria is expected to see the highest number of deaths with 31,400, followed by Indonesia (19,300), Sudan (17,500), India (15,800), and Brazil (13,300). Four of these five countries are located in the Southern Hemisphere. In Southeast Asia, countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia are expected to have a combined death toll of 19,400. In contrast, advanced economies are not expected to experience many heat-related deaths. According to the Brazilian daily Folha de S.Paulo, the combined projected deaths for all advanced economies such as the United States (3,500) and Italy (780) amount to less than 2% of the total. The number of deaths accounts only for those directly caused by heatwaves and does not include additional deaths from droughts, wildfires, or floods triggered by El Nino.

The research team estimated that due to El Nino, average land temperatures would rise by about 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal, and the number of extremely hot days would increase by 44% compared to average years. The institute recommended measures to reduce fatalities, including establishing early warning systems, visiting vulnerable households, operating cooling centers, and providing protective measures for outdoor workers.

Tamma Carleton, lead researcher and co-author of the report at the Climate Impact Lab, emphasized, "If we strengthen emergency responses and focus our efforts in the right places, we can save many lives this year."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.