OECD Sharply Raises Korea's Growth Forecast from 2.6% to 3.7% in Just Three Months

The Largest Upward Revision Among G20 Countries

"Robust Export and Production Growth Driving Expansion"

AFP Yonhap News

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its economic growth forecast for South Korea this year from the previous 2.6% to 3.7%.

This significant upward revision reflects a much stronger-than-expected economic rebound, driven by robust exports benefitting from the semiconductor supercycle, which is projected to push growth well above the estimated potential growth rate of 1.5–2.0%.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the OECD announced this outlook in its "Interim Economic Outlook 2026," released on September 23 (local time).

The OECD issues economic outlooks for the global economy, its member states, and the G20 twice a year (in June and December). In March and September, it publishes interim economic outlooks to revise previous forecasts.

In this latest outlook, the OECD set South Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 3.7% for this year. This figure is 1.1 percentage points higher than the previous estimate of 2.6% made three months ago in June last year.

For the second consecutive outlook—including the one in June—South Korea saw the largest upward revision among all G20 countries.

The OECD’s forecast surpasses those of the government and the Bank of Korea (3.0% and 3.3%, respectively), as well as the Korea Development Institute (KDI, 3.2%).

The OECD stated, "Strong export and production growth is driving economic expansion, and a moderate recovery in consumption is expected to continue next year." The Ministry of Economy and Finance relayed that the OECD sees strong export and production growth as supporting this year’s economic performance, with a moderate recovery in consumption forecast for next year as well.

The OECD also raised South Korea’s growth forecast for next year to 2.6%, up from the previous estimate of 1.9%, making it the largest upward revision among G20 nations.

This year’s inflation forecast for South Korea was raised to 3.0%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the forecast made three months ago (2.6%), reflecting increased international energy price forecasts.

The inflation forecast for next year was set at 2.7%, 0.5 percentage points higher than previously projected. However, inflation forecasts for both this year and next year remain lower than the G20 averages of 4.1% and 3.6%, respectively.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.