"Humanoids Can Dance All Day, But the 'Real Robot Stocks' That Generate Profit Are Different [Weekend Money]"

Q1 Humanoid Shipments: China Commands Overwhelming Share

"Repeat Orders and Actual Operation Time"—Connection to Real Demand Is Key

Non-Chinese Supply Chain Reorganization... Korean Parts Makers Expected to Benefit from Orders

The global competition in humanoid (human-like robot) technology is shifting from simply comparing production volumes to evaluating the "quality of demand"—verifying whether these robots are actually generating revenue in industrial settings.

Recently, Sunyoung Park, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated, "In the first half of this year, global humanoid robot shipments reached around 19,000 units, nearly matching last year's total shipments and demonstrating a faster-than-expected ramp-up in mass production." Park further analyzed, "Now, the market's focus has shifted from 'Is mass production possible?' to whether the shipped robots are being used repeatedly in real manufacturing and logistics workplaces."

On July 17, at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) held in Shanghai, China, a group of Ubitree humanoid robots are dancing together. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

"Repurchase rate outweighs unit sales" ... The yardstick for commercialization is changing

China is currently leading global humanoid mass production, leveraging a manufacturing ecosystem that covers everything from parts procurement to assembly and quality control. In the first half of the year, China accounted for 80–90% of global shipments, with two Chinese companies—Agibot (43.1%) and Unitree (31.1%)—together holding 75% of the total market share.

In contrast, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the US and South Korea are facing relative bottlenecks due to efforts to build supply chains independent from China and a lack of mass production experience. Major South Korean conglomerates are expected to begin full-scale mass production around 2028.

The key point is whether shipped robots are being "linked to real demand." Currently, over 60% of shipments are concentrated in entertainment, data collection, or research uses, while actual deployment in smart manufacturing (12.8%) and warehouse/logistics (4.9%) remains at an early stage. Nevertheless, changes are underway. For instance, the share of industrial and commercial applications in sales of UBTECH’s humanoid robots in China is rapidly increasing, and there are examples of industrial clients making repeat purchases.

Researcher Park commented, "The trend is shifting from research and education-based demand to expansion into manufacturing and logistics worksites," pointing out that, "Indicators such as repeat orders, actual operating hours, task success rates, and frequency of human intervention will become the standard for assessing the quality of demand and, ultimately, for judging commercialization going forward."

Companies are becoming differentiated by their ability to convert initial orders into results

While Chinese OEMs are working to cut costs by internalizing major components, the move by US, South Korean, and European OEMs toward diversifying their supply chains presents opportunities for domestic component suppliers. In particular, Korean companies are showing results in securing orders for key components—'integrated actuators' (motor, reducer, sensor integrated drive units) and 'precision reducers'—which account for over 50% of robot costs and determine joint flexibility and control performance.

In fact, Robotis has secured adoption cases for servo actuators used in open-source robot platforms, while SBB TECH has repeatedly announced public contracts to supply precision reducers to major domestic conglomerates. SPG has also reported entering the initial supply chain by equipping humanoids for research institutes. Even though large-scale mass production by South Korean conglomerates has yet to begin, the development and validation phases inherently involve initial component orders, suggesting significant leverage effects for business results.

Researcher Park explained, "Korean component providers may have relatively low visibility among global customers, but when they do enter the supply chain, their financial results are highly sensitive," adding, "Going forward, share price differentiation by company is likely to emerge, centered on those whose initial adoptions translate into real mass production volumes and sales growth."

Be mindful of price-cutting pressures and the risk of delayed industrial demand

It is also important to examine risk factors that may emerge during the expansion of commercialization. There is uncertainty regarding the replacement cycles for non-industrial demand, possible delays in industrial workplace adoption, and potential setbacks in mass production schedules for major OEMs. As robot mass production expands, demands from OEMs for cost reductions are likely to intensify. Should average selling prices (ASP) for actuators and reducers fall, margins for component makers could be eroded. Given the significant differences in order visibility and valuation by company, deploying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest broadly across the value chain can be an effective strategy.

Researcher Park further noted, "If the decline in ASPs for actuators and reducers outpaces the benefits of greater volumes, sales and profit growth may be limited despite increases in shipments," and added, "Considering component internalization by Chinese firms and heightened competition from Japanese, Taiwanese, and European companies, it will be important to monitor supply chain changes, focusing on order repeatability and the speed at which sales are realized in future supply contracts."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.