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Q1 Humanoid Shipments: China Commands Overwhelming Share

"Repeat Orders and Actual Operation Time"—Connection to Real Demand Is Key

Non-Chinese Supply Chain Reorganization... Korean Parts Makers Expected to Benefit from Orders

The global competition in humanoid (human-type robot) technology is shifting from simply comparing production volumes to evaluating the “quality of demand”—whether these robots can generate real revenue at industrial sites.

Recently, Sunyoung Park, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated, “In the first half of this year, global shipments of humanoids reached about 19,000 units, coming close to last year's annual shipment volume and demonstrating a faster-than-expected mass production capability,” adding, “Now, the market’s focus is moving away from ‘Is mass production possible?’ and toward whether the shipped robots are being used repeatedly in manufacturing and logistics workplaces.”

On July 17, at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) held in Shanghai, China, a group of Ubitree humanoid robots are dancing together. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

"Repurchase Rate Over Volume Sold"…Standards for Commercialization Are Changing

China is leading the global mass production of humanoids by leveraging its manufacturing ecosystem, which is seamlessly connected from component procurement to assembly and quality control. In the first half of this year, China accounted for 80-90% of global shipments, and two Chinese companies—Agibot (43.1%) and Unitree (31.1%)—accounted for 75% of the entire market.

In contrast, OEMs in the United States and Korea are experiencing relative bottlenecks due to efforts to build supply chains independent of China and a lack of mass production experience. The mass production target for major Korean conglomerates is estimated to be around 2028.

The key issue now is connecting shipped robots to “real demand.” Currently, more than 60% of shipments are concentrated in entertainment or data collection and research applications, while intelligent manufacturing (12.8%) and warehouse/logistics applications (4.9%)—actual factory deployment—are still in their early stages. However, changes are underway, as the share of industrial and commercial sales in Chinese UBTech’s humanoid robot revenue is rapidly increasing, and cases of repeat purchases by industrial clients are starting to emerge.

Researcher Park commented, “There is a trend where demand, which was centered on research and education, is expanding into manufacturing and logistics sites. In the future, indicators that can verify the quality of demand—such as repeated orders, actual operating hours, task success rates, and frequency of human intervention—will become key standards for judging commercialization.”

Differentiation Is Emerging Among Companies Translating Early Orders into Performance

While Chinese OEMs are seeking to reduce costs by internalizing components, moves by American, Korean, and European OEMs to diversify supply chains are creating opportunities for Korean component manufacturers. In particular, Korean companies are delivering notable results in winning orders for core components—“integrated actuators” (units combining motors, reducers, and sensors, which account for more than 50% of robot cost and determine joint flexibility and control performance) and “precision reducers.”

For example, Robotis has secured cases where its servo actuators are adopted for open-source robot platforms, SBB Tech has repeatedly announced supply contracts for precision reducers with major Korean conglomerates, and SPG has reported initial supply chain entry with humanoid deployments at research institutions. Even prior to mass production by major domestic manufacturers, initial orders for components are placed during development and demo phases, so a strong leverage effect on financial performance is expected.

Researcher Park said, “Domestic component makers may have lower visibility among global clients, but once supply chain entry is confirmed, the sensitivity of performance is significant. In the future, stock price differentiation among companies is likely, centered on those that can turn initial adoption into actual mass production orders and earnings growth.”

Attention Needed for Price Pressure and Delayed Industrial Demand Risks

Risks arising in the process of expanding commercialization should also be closely monitored. There are uncertainties in the replacement cycle for non-industrial demand, potential delays in industrial site adoption, and possible setbacks in major OEM production schedules. As OEMs strengthen demands for cost reduction in line with expanded robot mass production, if the average selling price (ASP) of actuators and reducers declines, the profit margins of component makers could be damaged. In a context of large discrepancies in order visibility and valuation by company, a strategy of diversified investment using exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that span the entire value chain may also be effective.

Researcher Park added, “If the pace of ASP decline in actuators and reducers exceeds the effect of increased volume, then even as shipments rise, companies may achieve only limited revenue and profit growth. Considering China’s internalization of components and growing competition with Japanese, Taiwanese, and European players, it will be important to monitor supply chain changes focused on the repeatability of supply contracts and the speed of revenue conversion going forward.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.